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Nick Saban is arguably the greatest college football coach of all time, with the numbers to back it up. Over 28 seasons, Saban led four programs, guiding two of them — LSU and Alabama — to national championships for a combined seven titles.
After five seasons at LSU, Saban jumped to the NFL to coach the Miami Dolphins. That experiment lasted only two seasons before he returned to the SEC to take over at Alabama. The rest, as they say, is history.
During his 17-year run in Tuscaloosa, Saban was frequently linked to other high-profile jobs. But he ultimately remained at Alabama, where he solidified his legendary status.
Still, it’s always fun to play the “what if” game in sports — which is exactly what The Athletic’s Matt Baker did. In a detailed piece, Baker explored six major factors that shaped Saban’s dynasty: on-field success, recruiting average, five-star recruiting, money, talent development, and proven program potential.
Taking all that into account, Baker explored where else Saban could have brought his winning ways.
“Let’s say Saban left Alabama after winning it all in 2015,” Baker wrote. “What’s the worst program the best version of the best coach in college football history could have led to a national title? Could he have lived out the video game dynasty mode fantasy of turning a low-prestige program into a champion? What limits would there have been to Saban’s power?”
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By Baker’s estimation, there were 33 programs Saban could have won a national title with during the peak of his career.
They included: Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Utah, Virginia Tech, Washington and Wisconsin.
The worst of those? Louisville.
“The Cardinals are the only one without a top-five finish since 1990 and had the lowest average FPI,” Baker wrote. “Their recruiting rankings were virtually tied with Utah at the bottom of the top tier, and the Sun Devils were the only contender with lower NFL Draft production. Louisville’s perch in the ACC also provides a power conference starting point with an easier route to the Playoff.
“Pair a Saban defense with 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and a national title doesn’t seem outlandish.”
Since Saban arrived at Alabama in 2007, Louisville has had five head coaches, no top-10 finishes, and just three double-digit win seasons. The Cardinals are 8-5 in bowl games during that span, have never won an ACC title since joining the league in 2014, and are one of nine programs on Baker’s list that haven’t won a national championship in the AP Poll era (since 1936).
Traditionally known as a basketball school, Louisville might have rewritten its history had Saban ever ended up there. After all, every team he coached reached at least nine wins.
Alabama fans are grateful he stayed put in Tuscaloosa. But for programs like Louisville — who likely never considered themselves Saban contenders — it’s hard not to imagine what might’ve been.
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