Why Man City vs. Arsenal is the biggest Premier League game in 14 years

Manchester City vs. Arsenal on Sunday is not just the biggest match of the season. It's the biggest in years.

The table-topping Gunners travel to the Etihad Stadium for a game that could be critical in the 2025/26 title race, as Mikel Arteta aims to deliver a first league championship to north London since 2004.

Arsenal's form has faltered in recent weeks, threatening to derail their trophy hopes. They lost 2-0 to City in the Carabao Cup final before being dumped out of the FA Cup by Southampton. Losing at home to Bournemouth last week, combined with City's 3-0 win at Chelsea, has only ramped up the pressure further ahead of this weekend's meeting.

But for Arsenal, this season is not just about lifting silverware. It's about laying to rest years of disappointment, of watching City take their once rightful place as one of England's mightiest and conquer all before them. It's the chance to avenge some bitter losses to Pep Guardiola's team, and to bring about the dawn of a new era.

It's why this is much more than a game.

MORE: Should Arsenal sack Arteta if they don't win a trophy? SN's Kyle Bonn has his say

Why Man City vs. Arsenal is the biggest EPL game since 2012

Even back in September, when Arsenal salvaged a 1-1 draw at home to City after being frustrated by their opponents' surprisingly defensive approach, it felt like an important moment in the title race.

This week's game, though, is in another stratosphere.

It is not unusual to see two of the top sides meet at this stage of a season with the title still up for grabs (we've listed some of the best such games below), but it is rare for a one-off match to represent both a critical moment in the championship itself and a potential shift in the league's balance of power.

This is not, for instance, a meeting of perennial contenders, such as Manchester United vs. Arsenal in the late 1990s and early 2000s, or Barcelona vs. Real Madrid at almost any point in the past 20 years. City might have become the dominant force in England since Guardiola's arrival 10 years ago, but Arsenal have gone more than two decades without winning the league.

There is a generation of Gunners fans who were not alive to witness the glory years under Arsene Wenger, who delivered three league titles in seven seasons, including the famous 'Invincibles' side of 2003/04. To them, Arsenal fandom is more about near-misses, April collapses and "bottling". To win this game — and the title in May — would be the culmination of Arteta's six-plus-years rebuilding work. It would be dreams made reality.

It would also cement Arsenal's return to a position of authority in English football. Three second-place finishes followed by a league title, plus consecutive Champions League semifinals, is the mark of a team at, or near, its pinnacle. It would rubber-stamp their place as the Premier League's current strongest force, and, just maybe, herald the start of a dynasty.

The last time there was a result of such significance at the top of the table was in April 2012, when City defeated United 1-0 en route to a first ever Premier League title. They may only have won the trophy on goal difference thanks to Sergio Aguero's unforgettable final-day heroics, but the outcome of the 2011/12 title race was a seismic moment for English football: the beginning of the City era. Winning that trophy set Manchester's underdogs, bankrolled by Abu Dhabi, on a path towards unparalleled years of success under Guardiola. Beating United won them that trophy.

Arsenal now face a similar moment.

Man City vs. Arsenal state of play, permutations

Of course, if you break this down into cold, hard league standings, failing to win would not be terrible for Arsenal. Even losing would not be the end of the world.

Man City vs. Arsenal points difference

After 32 games, Arsenal sit top of the table on 70 points. City are six behind, but having played 31 matches.

Their goal difference is also very close (Arsenal's is better by three), while even goals scored — another possible tiebreaker — is almost identical. It is fair to say there is little to split them.

Man United and Aston Villa (in third and fourth) are 15 points adrift of Arsenal, so although either could mathematically still win the league, it is extremely unlikely.

What happens if Man City win

If City win, they will close to within three points of Arsenal. That would give them the chance to go level on points if they then win their game in hand against Crystal Palace, which is yet to be rescheduled.

City would then be relying on goal difference to overtake their rivals, assuming both teams won all their remaining games (which is far from a given, of course).

If City defeat Arsenal by only one goal, they will still have worse goal difference than the Gunners. In that scenario, Arsenal still control the destiny of the title: if they can keep their goal difference better than City's, they will stay above them, regardless of whether Guardiola's team win all their games.

What happens if Arsenal win

In Guardiola's words, if Arsenal win the game, "it's over" for City's title hopes. While that's not strictly true, it would certainly feel like City's chance may have gone.

An Arsenal victory would put them nine points clear with five games remaining, so even if City won their game in hand, they would still be six adrift. In that scenario, Arsenal would only need 10 points from their last five matches of the season — three wins and a draw, for instance — to be confirmed as champions irrespective of City's results.

Who would a draw help most?

Arsenal would benefit most from a draw, as it would maintain their present advantage at the top and keep the destiny of the title in their own hands (i.e. they would not depend on City dropping points in order to win the league).

City would consider themselves still in the hunt, but their task would look very difficult.

EPL TITLE RACE:

• Arsenal's schedule and results for April and May
• Man City fixture schedule as they chase down the Gunners

What happens if Arsenal and Man City finish level on points?

If Arsenal and Man City end the season level on points, the team with the better overall goal difference will finish higher. If that differential is also equal, the team with the most goals scored will take the title.

If the two teams are level on points, goal difference and goals scored after 38 games, their positions in the table will be decided by the following criteria:

• Points earned in head-to-head matches
• Away goals scored in head-to-head matches.

This is where it gets really interesting: if Sunday's game ends in a 1-1 draw, it opens up the possibility of Arsenal and City ending the season equal in all tiebreaker criteria. We could then have a special one-off "final" to decide the title.

MORE: How Arsenal and Man City could end up playing an unprecedented title playoff

Past Premier League title-deciding games

The nature of the Premier League means such games as these are very rare. The closest we've come to a true one-off "decider" was in 2012, when City hosted United in the third-to-last matchweek of the season. City's 1-0 win, secured via a Vincent Kompany header, moved them level on points with United but, crucially, ahead on goal difference. They won the title that year via Aguero's famous last-gasp winner over QPR on the final day, finishing +8 goals better off than their rivals.

The below table details some of the most notable late-season meetings between the top two in the standings. Each time, the result had a certifiable impact on the destination of the title. In the case of Man United vs. Arsenal in 2002, the result actually confirmed the Gunners as champions.

Premier League 'title deciders' in past seasons

We've omitted a few from the above list since the results didn't actually prove decisive in terms of the title race. For example, after Chelsea beat Man United 2-1 in April 2008 to go level on points with two games left, United remained top and won the title by two points after the Blues drew with Bolton Wanderers.

Similarly, Liverpool's dramatic 3-2 win over City in April 2014 did not stop the latter winning the league, as Brendan Rodgers' team lost at home to Chelsea and drew at Crystal Palace.

Liverpool 0-2 Arsenal, 1989

Arguably the truest title-decider in England's top division predates the Premier League. On the final day of the 1988/89 season, Liverpool hosted Arsenal at Anfield in a match that had been rescheduled due to the Hillsborough disaster. The Gunners needed to win by a minimum of two goals to stop Liverpool defending their title.

With the game having gone beyond the 90-minute mark, Arsenal launched a hopeful ball forward, Michael Thomas benefited from a fortunate deflection to burst beyond the Liverpool defence, and he prodded a finish past goalkeeper Bruce Grobbelaar. It gave the visitors a 2-0 win and won them their first league title in 18 years.