Why Jayson Tatum Drastically Makes Celtics Numerically Scary NBA Title Contenders

All eyes are on Jayson Tatum. It has become clear, especially after the Jaylen Brown trade, that this is his team now. Coach Joe Mazzulla has built schemes and rotations to win with the nine-year veteran as their primary superstar. For now, it may be counterintuitive to think the Boston Celtics are contenders after parting ways with an NBA MVP candidate and former NBA Finals MVP. But it will all make sense by the end of this article. We will even tackle how Brad Stevens, Paul George, Hugo Gonzalez, and Mitchell Robinson fit into this.

Breaking down how Jayson Tatum can lead Celtics to probable NBA title run for 2026-27

For the outsider looking in, or even just the common NBA fan, it's hard to understand why the Celtics are contenders after having just dealt Jaylen Brown for Paul George. But the best way to make sense of things is to step into the mind of Coach Joe Mazzulla and Brad Stevens. What language do they speak and thrive in? Numbers. Do not be intimidated because we will make all of the graphs and numbers digestible for every fan to enjoy.

Putting the Celtics into perspective

Before diving deep into how Jayson Tatum impacts the Celtics, there needs to be an understanding of the system that this team has run for the past few years, which led them to the 2024 NBA Championship. An offense that tanks pace to become the most efficient version of themselves. Even with Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Jaylen Brown on the team, this overarching philosophy was already in place.

Let's look at how Coach Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics did offensively in 2025-26, then move from there.

(Numbers scraped from Basketball Reference)

A few notable raw numbers pop out here. The Celtics are the best team in ball security, with a league-leading 0.112 TOV% (turnover percentage), and they're also a potent offense, as shown by a 120.8 ORTG (offensive rating) that ranks second in the NBA. Coach Mazzulla has also schemed them to get second-chance points and extra possessions, as shown by the league's sixth-best ORB% at 0.292.

However, it is weird that the Celtics have the seventh-best FT% (free throw percentage) at 0.807, but they are 29th in their free throw rate at just 0.167. There are answers for why that's the case, and it all has to do with Tatum only playing 16 games during the 2025-26 NBA season.

Prior to getting to that point, the offensive landscape of the Celtics during the 2025-26 NBA season, when broken down into the gradient vectors of eFG%, TOV%, ORB%, and FTR, then compared to the rest of the NBA, looks like this.

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Let's slowly discuss what these mean.

For starters, the Celtics, through Coach Mazzulla's schemes, run a very efficient offense when scaled to the rest of the NBA. Where does it say that? Well, they have a 55.3% eFG%, which is above the league average of 54.67%. But that's not the sole metric for efficiency; anyone who claims that would be lying to NBA fans. It is also supplemented by Boston's 29.27% ORB%, which ranked sixth in the NBA and is far higher than the league average of 26%. So, a large semblance of offensive efficiency is on their side.

Second, this is where things get a bit more technical, but do not fret. When analyzing the chart, the Celtics have a sensitivity of 1.899 to the league average of 1.785. Similarly, they have a maximum slope of 1.3, while the NBA average is 1.19. It sounds like a word salad right now, but we'll make it simpler.

See, the Celtics run the slowest offense in the NBA. They have a pace of 94.8, dead last in the league. This means that possessions matter more. Personally, I like to call it the Mazzulla or Love and Trust Sensitivity. Coach Mazzulla's offensive system uses more of the 24-second shot clock than the other 29 teams, runs plays perfectly rather than chucking up haphazard shots, and has everyone try to find the best shot possible as the offense moves.

The sequence typically goes: Derrick White or Payton Pritchard slowly brings the ball up, they signal the play to be run, constant passes are thrown while others like Neemias Queta or Jordan Walsh move off-ball through cuts to secure an offensive rebound, and then someone takes the highest-value shot. What's the ideal outcome? The Celtics either sink the field goal or get a rebound. Notice, the other option of getting a foul to take free throws a la Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is not an option here. All of this explains why the Celtics have a high sensitivity and are volatile to 'getting in their own way'. Fewer possessions and pace mean more pressure to knock down shots while milking the clock.

Third, when the Celtics execute Coach Mazzulla's schemes well, they lock down the half-court and limit opponents' chances to beat them in transition. With a high 0.553 eFG%, they miss less and force opponents into fewer defensive rebounds. Boston also has a high 0.292 ORB%, which beats most squads in turning their own misses into second-chance points and extra possessions. Adding their league-leading 0.112 TOV% to their fairly high eFG% means offensive possessions either end on a high-quality shot or a reset shot clock. In both scenarios, they can set up a better shot or execute defensive schemes more cleanly, given the time to get back on the other side of the court.

This is what the Mazzulla Sensitivity and Tank-Pace-For-Efficiency schemes do for the Celtics.

So, where does Jayson Tatum fit into these?

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Adding Jayson Tatum to the larger Celtics' 2026-27 NBA title run pie

The easiest way to understand Coach Joe Mazzulla and Brad Stevens' situation with their new star is that it is not complex at all. Jayson Tatum is the Celtics' offensive insurance card, but he comes with a steep upfront tax. No, this isn't about him being an Amica Insurance ambassador, nor is it about his five-year, $313.9 million deal. It's about how the Celtics change when they have their superstar on the court.

To make more sense of this, let's look deeper into his numbers during the 2025-26 NBA season.

A few notes before breaking this further down. Tatum's 49.3 eFG% is the lowest he recorded in the past six seasons. The same goes for his 41.1% FG%; it is the lowest of his career.

Now, it's easier to visualize why Tatum has a steep cost when the Celtics run their offense through him. Diving deeper into the data, the Celtics take a hit in major categories. They get a -7.5 ORTG, and their eFG% goes down to -0.6 back in the 2025-26 season. But this isn't a sign of concern. See, he had only just returned from an Achilles injury, and the recovery took less than a year. He had to shift his weight so the injury wouldn't reaggravate. This is reflected in career lows in his 49.3% eFG% and 41.1% FG%.

Another major factor is Coach Mazzulla and the Celtics giving Tatum the green light to run their plays in isolation. Remember the ideal sequence to balance out the Mazzulla Sensitivity? Well, a large chunk of that gets thrown away when someone plays isolation ball. Jaylen Brown also saw this happen when he led the Celtics without Tatum. The star milks the shot clock in isolation, which drags down their ORTG and eFG%. For a team that plays at a low pace like the Celtics, the numbers drop significantly when they play in isolation because extra possessions are rarely available.

Coach Mazzulla's system also takes a drastic plunge in ORB% when Tatum is on the floor if he plays in isolation. It goes down by -0.275. Why is that the case? See, isolation drives in the Celtics system usually mean someone unleashes their 'bag work,' and the remaining four players have to move closer to the perimeter to clear the lane for a drive or a kickout three-pointer. This turns off a high ORB%. However, he does have the playmaking chops to avoid all of these woes.

Jayson Tatum 25 PTS, 18 REB, 11 AST at Miami (2026) pic.twitter.com/huOQr3FWKZ

This is where the new additions and Brad Stevens' hesitance to let go of a certain player comes in. The Mitchell Robinson acquisition solves the ORB% problem because he led the NBA with his 23.1% ORB%. Paul George solves the other part of it: bail-out corner three-pointers or a secondary immediate playmaker. The player traded for Brown recorded the fourth-best eFG%  in his career, valued at 53.6%. Hugo Gonzalez? He's the perfect Swiss Army knife able to patch all of these deficiencies when isolation ball is played. The Celtics rookie had a 56.1% eFG% that bailed them out late in the shot clock and a 6.4% ORB%, which is exceptionally high for a small forward. He is on par with guys like Josh Hart and Keldon Johnson in the rebounding category despite being 6'6".

Tatum will thrive with these new acquisitions.

More: Paul George gets real about how he views Jayson Tatum as the only superstar in Boston

Last, and definitely not least, all of this is worth it because Tatum thrives in either team-executed schemes or isolation. The Celtics star improves their ball security as the primary ball handler. Coach Mazzulla can breathe a sigh of relief because he knows the Celtics won't commit turnovers when the superstar has the ball. More importantly, the option for free throw attempts that were not afforded to them when Jaylen Brown ran the offense- remember that? That's the biggest pull Tatum has, and it makes them more lethal. He opens up the offense by giving them second chances to score at the free-throw line because his ability to draw fouls is impeccable. The Celtics have a +0.108 higher free-throw rate and a +0.016 higher free-throw percentage. Coupling that with a low turnover percentage and high offensive rebounding rate means they have all that it takes to win the NBA championship for the 2026-27 season.

What about the deficiencies? Well, Tatum has a whole offseason to address his injuries and shot mechanics. Basketball-Reference projects his field goal percentage rising from 41.1% to 44.7%, while his three-point percentage rises from 32.9% to 34.6%. All of these will keep Mazzulla's sensitivity in check.

Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers now have Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. The Miami Heat will see Giannis Antetokounmpo, while the Indiana Pacers get Tyrese Haliburton back. But the Celtics have gotten scarier. Why? It's because they are set to be more stable, unlike in previous years when two people played isolation. With Tatum back in the rotation and new additions to make their Mazzulla Sensitivity more manageable, it looks like a dark horse in the Eastern Conference will go unnoticed as they retain the top spot.

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