Why Iowa’s NCAA Tournament success can lead to regression

Iowa is playing in their first Elite Eight since 1987. If the Hawkeyes can pull off yet another upset against Illinois in Houston, it will be the program’s first Final Four appearance since 1980. That came before the expansion of the tournament to 64. 

This success, including 21 wins before selection Sunday, has been engineered by Ben McCollum. The first-year coach, who came over from Drake after leading the Bulldogs to a 31-4 record and a first round tournament win over six-seeded Missouri by a score of 67-57. After the success at Drake, which followed four Division II National Championships at Northwest Missouri State, McCollum was hired as coach of Iowa for the 2025-26 season. 

McCollum brought with him his best players from Drake. These players played a key role in Iowa’s success this season. Scoring 65 percent of the Hawkeye’s points.

McCollum’s teams are not exciting on offense. They only score 75.0 points a game. Which is good for No. 202 nationally. But they make up for it on defense where they allow an average of 66.1 points which ranks No. 18 in the country. The Hawkeyes are efficient and can clamp down on teams. This is the way Iowa was able to pull off upsets over Clemson, Florida, and Nebraska to make the Elite Eight. Florida, who scored 114 points in their first round game, managed only 72 against Iowa. This success is wonderful for this team and this season. But it may turn out to be sad news for Iowa soon. 

UNC just fired Hubert Davis on Tuesday night after five mediocre seasons in Chapel Hill. Davis was supposed to be the next North Carolina man up and was hand selected by Roy Williams to take over. This despite the fact he had never been a head coach before. Even so, Davis was handed the keys to a Bugatti Veyron and crashed the $1.6 million vehicle while pulling out of the driveway. 

The Tar Heels are a legendary basketball program. But they were only paying Davis $3 million as head coach. He took the severe discount to do what he felt was right for his alma mater. The next coach will have no compunction in getting the most he can. North Carolina knows this and they are getting the finances together to pay between $6 million and $9 million a year for their next leader.

McCollum, who is making $3.35 million and is on a six-year contract, is high on the list for the vacancy in Chapel Hill. McCollum has been successful despite being an underdog in Las Vegas and in money spent by his program. Moving to North Carolina will be a chance to see what he can do with real backing of fanatic boosters and fans. 

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North Carolina, even with their recent struggles, is still in the top five jobs in America. Anyone would want to take it unless you are at one of few schools like Duke, Kansas and that might be all. But McCollum, in Iowa, might not be able to turn the job down. 

He is 44 years old. He is more relatable to players than some older coaches and he has had success at multiple levels of competition. This might seem like a large step up for McCollum or a significant risk for North Carolina. It is. But it is a risk worth taking for both and it might just happen. Leaving the Hawkeyes looking for yet another coach. Just one year after finding their perfect fit.

There are only two things which may complicate things for either of these sides. McCollum has coached his entire career in the Midwest. It is certainly as crazy about basketball as North Carolina. But the vibe of the community is entirely different. Does McCollum want to move his family somewhere entirely new? The other concern, for North Carolina specifically, is Bill Self. 

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Self-made statements after losing to St. John’s that he might think about calling it a career at 63. He later walked back these comments and said it was just a caught up in the moment situation. But, if Kansas did open, McCollum might want that job instead. Although it is looking like assistant Jacque Vaughn’s job unless things change. For my part, McCollum would be better off in North Carolina. He would not be following a legend and UNC has been trending down longer than Kansas ever has been.

Both jobs will be full of pressure, but UNC is in an easier conference which only looks to be falling further. Kansas, in the Big 12 conference, will continue to battle against the likes of Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech and a Baylor team who was down in 2025-26, but will not stay that way under Scott Drew.

No matter what path McCollum chooses, one thing is certain, His $3.5 million salary for next season will not be the same by the start of next season. 

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