Why early-season data points to Premiership style shift

ByNick McPheat

BBC Sport Scotland

Think of the Scottish Premiership and you think of a division with enough box-office drama and passion to rival, if not surpass, any other European league.

Where Scotland's top flight has had its perceived shortcomings over the years, though, is in the product and standard it offers on the pitch.

More blood and thunder. Less technical and tactical.

However, with more Premiership sides than ever showing a willingness to keep the high balls low, early-season data suggests the league is shifting towards a style many fans would regard as a more attractive watch.

As domestic action prepares to return from an extended international break, the dust has been blown off the BBC Scotland supercomputer to uncover some underlying trends, with the help of the stats gurus at Opta.

There had long been a notion within Scottish football that it wasn't possible for most clubs to enjoy success on the pitch while entertaining their supporters with a progressive style.

Not got the technical ability of Virgil van Dijk or Kristoffer Ajer? Forget splitting your centre-backs either side of the six-yard box to collect a goal-kick and start an attack.

You don't have Callum McGregor in midfield? Yeah, best not ask your number six to drop deep and progress play under pressure.

It was all seen as too risky. Budgets wouldn't allow for it. Leave that to the big boys. That was the type of reasoning you would tend to hear.

However, those arguments were booted out of the park - or, more aptly, passed off the pitch - by Motherwell and Falkirk last season.

Jens Berthel Askou and John McGlynn demonstrated that exhilarating, free-flowing football could be played on a modest budget while still achieving success.

Both sides finished in the top half - Motherwell fourth and Falkirk sixth - and benefited from attendances spiking and a cash injection through transfer income in the summer, particularly at Fir Park.

That said, Derek McInnes' Hearts didn't receive too many plaudits for their playing style, but were minutes away from one of the greatest triumphs in the history of the Scottish game.

That perhaps shines a light on a problem that can arise with these types of discussions. Snobbery can sometimes take over. At the end of the day, attractive football is what you deem to be attractive.

No Jambo would have cared about average possession or progressive passes had their team held out in May's dramatic title decider at Celtic Park.

Regardless, the success stories at Motherwell and Falkirk have clearly had an influence.

Dundee United boss Jim Goodwin was humble enough to reveal that Askou - now head coach at Toulouse in Ligue 1 - has inspired him to change his ways after more than 15 years as a player and manager in Scotland.

Goodwin's side are one of a number of Premiership teams to have undergone a stylistic shift this term, and that is reflected in the league's overall numbers, albeit the sample size remains small after just seven matches for each club.

Compared with the previous five Scottish top-flight seasons, passes per game have soared to 886. That is an increase of 58 on last term. Five years ago, the average was 795.

Passing accuracy is also at a high of 81%, which is quite a remarkable increase on the 73% recorded in 2023-24.

That is down to more short passing. The percentage of long passes across the league (13%) is now at its lowest level of the past five years. Perhaps surprisingly, Hearts and Rangers go long more than any other teams.

Goodwin's United, meanwhile, have gone from average possession of 42% last term to 50% this season. Their accurate passes per match have rocketed from 219 to 320.

It is a similar story for St Mirren under Craig McLeish and Neil McCann's Kilmarnock, while league leaders Celtic and Alfred Johansson's Motherwell are locked at the top of the possession chart on 61%.

The promotion of St Johnstone back into the league, replacing Livingston, has added another side who aim to play a more expansive brand.

The recent appointment of Dutch head coach Marink Reedijk at Hibernian will only enhance that.

There is a counter view that the modern possession-based approach can lead to a stale watch.

A lot of fans would rather the ball was accelerated up to their forward players as quickly as possible, as opposed to their goalkeeper and centre-backs racking up their touch count.

However, although goals per game are currently at their lowest (2.5) since 2021-22, Premiership fans are seeing more shots per match (28.6) than in any of the past five campaigns.

But where are those efforts being taken from?

Strikes, and therefore goals, from outside the box are threatening to drop to a new low this term, reflecting a trend across the sport in recent years as coaches continue to stress the need to create high-quality chances rather than take speculative shots.

That is another gripe of supporters who lament the thought of individualism being ripped out of the game. How many Bert Konterman thunderbolts or Shunsuke Nakamura screamers would now be passes?

Yet many fans are just happy to see a refreshed approach, as they watch players they once thought were only capable of hooking aimless balls and challenging for duels punch passes through the lines.

The Scottish game might be playing catch-up, but early 2026-27 data is potentially pointing towards unrivalled passion in the stands being reflected by a new wave of exciting football on the pitch.