Who will USA play next? Updated scenarios for USMNT's Round of 32 opponent from third-place pool

The United States have already confirmed not only a place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout bracket, but indeed their place, having secured the top spot in Group D heading into the final round of group stage games.

While the USMNT is still yet to play Turkey, a game which will take place on Thursday, the result of that game has zero competitive bearing on their eventual group finish or their knockout stage place.

However, what has yet to be determined is their opponent, not only in the short-term to begin knockout stage play in the Round of 32, but also down the road in the bracket should they survive to reach the later rounds.

The Sporting News brings you every viable scenario for the USMNT in the World Cup knockout bracket, including who they could face and what needs to happen for them to reach that point.

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Who will USA play in the Round of 32?

The USMNT's first opponent for the World Cup knockout stage is not yet guaranteed and won't be 100% confirmed until Saturday, when the last group stage matches will be played.

However, it is most likely the U.S. will face either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar in the Round of 32 on July 1 in Santa Clara. The winner of their head-to-head match in Group B is all but guaranteed to meet the United States in the knockouts.

USMNT World Cup bracket scenarios

Even though the U.S. have already guaranteed their exact place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout bracket, it will not be known who the United States play in the Round of 32 until the entire group stage has completed.

This is because the U.S. will be matched up against a third-place qualifier, and the third-place qualifiers will not be sorted into the bracket until it's known which combination of eight groups will send third-place qualifiers. However, we do have some insight into who they could match up against, as FIFA has published ahead-of-time each of the 495 possible combinations of third-place qualifying groups.

The USMNT has five different groups they could be paired with in the Round of 32. Here is a list of them, from most to least likely:

Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar

This is by far the most likely scenario for the United States facing a third-place qualifier. Of the 330 possible outcomes for a Group B third-place qualifier in the knockout bracket, 329 of them end up with them facing the Group D winner, or the United States.

In short, if Group B gets a third-place qualifier, they will almost guaranteed to be playing the USA.

Thus, we need to look at what needs to happen to get Group B a third qualifier. It's quite basic: if either Bosnia & Herzegovina or Qatar win on the final day, they would finish on four points and would go through to the knockout stage. However, if they draw, both will finish on two points, and are almost certainly both eliminated, leaving Group B without a third-place qualifier.

There is one small possible outcome that sees Canada or Switzerland finish third, but it would require the loser from that game to have their goal difference advantage destroyed in the process, so they fall below the winner of Bosnia & Herzergovina and Qatar.

MORE: What does success look like for the USMNT at the World Cup?

Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq

If Group B does not get a qualifier, Group I is the next most-likely scenario for the United States opponent in the Round of 32, with 52 possible outcomes of the 495 combinations. This result would present a bit of a headache for the USMNT.

Almost certainly, this will be Senegal, who are expected to beat Iraq in their final game, unless a few alternative realities play out. If Iraq upset Senegal, they could snatch the third-place spot. Also, if the loser of France vs. Norway gets pummeled and loses their goal differential advantage, they could drop to third.

In any case, this outcome presents a much tougher challenge than anything Group B would throw at the United States.

Group J: Austria, Jordan, Algeria

In 64 of the 495 combinations, the United States would be paired with a third-place qualifier from Group J. Argentina has already secured a top-two spot, meaning only Austria, Jordan, and Algeria are in play as a possible third-place qualifier.

This is likely to be Algeria, who will finish third in this group unless they upset Austria to dump the Europeans into third. If Algeria lose that finale by too many goals, however, they could fall out of contention for knockout stage qualification, as they are currently hovering right around the cut line with three points and a -2 goal differential.

MORE: Teams to qualify for Round of 32 | Updated group scenarios for every team

Group E: Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curacao

In 39 of the 495 combinations, the USMNT would be matched up against the third-place qualifier from Group E, a group which Germany has already been confirmed as winners.

That leaves the other three teams to duke it out for third place. This group is not likely to get a third-place qualifier, unless Curacao manages to upset Ivory Coast, or Ecuador can beat Germany. Otherwise, the bottom two teams will be eliminated on one point each.

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden

By far the least likely result would see the United States play a Group F qualifier, which triggers in just 11 of the 495 total combinations in the FIFA regulations.

The Netherlands and Japan both enter the final matchday tied on four points at the top of the group, both just needing to win to advance as an automatic top-two qualifier. A draw for Japan against Sweden would also be enough. In all likelihood, the third-place qualifier in this group will be Sweden, but it could be any of the top three teams, given that Tunisia are eliminated from the tournament already.

WORLD CUP GROUP STANDINGS:

Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F
Group G | Group H | Group I | Group J | Group K | Group L

Who could the United States play in the World Cup Round of 16?

For those who prefer to take the tournament one game at a time, look away. This section is for those who like to look ahead in the bracket a bit and see what possibilities lie ahead.

This is a bit easier to figure out, because in all likelihood, the Round of 16 opponent for the United States will be the winner of Group G, who will surely be favored to beat their third-place qualifier in the Round of 32 unless some truly wacky things take place.

Egypt are leading Group G heading into the final day thanks to their four points, with group favorites Belgium having drawn each of their first two matches. But Mohamed Salah and company have the tougher final matchup against Iran, while Belgium take on 82nd-ranked New Zealand.

Egypt only need to draw with Iran to win the group, as long as Belgium do not pass them on goal differential with a three-goal victory over New Zealand. Belgium, meanwhile, need to beat New Zealand, and either have Egypt lose, or see Egypt draw with Iran and they themselves generate enough offense to pass on goal differential.

Even Iran can still win the group, if they beat Egypt by more than Belgium beat New Zealand.

Whoever comes out of that group, their most likely opponent is a third-place qualifier is a team from Group A, which could be either the Czech Republic, South Korea, or South Africa. They also could end up playing a qualifier from Group H, which may be Uruguay, Cape Verde, or Saudi Arabia.

Who could the United States play in the World Cup quarterfinals?

If things break their way and the 2026 World Cup co-hosts reach all the way to the quarterfinals, they would be thrilled with the result regardless of who they match up against.

The quarterfinals, understandably, is where things could get truly daunting for the USMNT, as their most likely quarterfinal opponent is...gulp...Spain. This is because te other Round of 16 matchup in their bracket pod is likely to feature the winner of Group H (Spain's group), matched up against three group runners-up.

However, there are potential pitfalls here for Spain that could lead to an upset, and thus some upheaval in the bracket. One of those three group runners-up in their pod is that of Group K, which could be Uruguay or Portugal, two teams capable of springing an upset of this caliber (even if they have struggled through two matches thus far).

USA rooting guide for World Cup bracket

Here are the matches most influential to the USMNT's knockout round pathway that fans can concentrate on to know exactly where the U.S. will fall in the bracket.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Qatar

• Date: Wednesday, June 24
• Time (ET): 3 p.m.

This match will be the most important when it comes to determining the Round of 32 opponent for the USMNT.

If there is a winner in this game, that winner is virtually guaranteed to play the U.S. first up in the knockout stage. However, if this match ends in a draw, neither team will qualify for the knockouts, and Group B will not have a third-place qualifier, so it all trickles down from there.

Senegal vs. Iran

• Date: Friday, June 26
• Time (ET): 3 p.m.

This match is only of importance to USMNT fans if Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Qatar ends in a draw, because then this game will go towards determining who finishes third in Group I, a potential Round of 32 opponent for the U.S.

Egypt vs. Iraq

• Date: Friday, June 26
• Time (ET): 11 p.m.

If Egypt win this match, or even if they draw, they are very likely to be the potential Round of 16 opponent for the United States. However, if they lose, or if they draw and Belgium pummels New Zealand, then the Europeans will take that spot in the USA's knockout pod.

USA World Cup schedule 2026