What to know about the odds of success in egg freezing — as AOC, 36, starts fertility treatments

US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has begun the process of freezing her eggs — and is keeping her followers updated on social media.

In a series of Instagram stories this past weekend, the 36-year-old “squad” member revealed she had been saving up for and contemplating the procedure for some time.

She said she felt “empowered” to start while Congress is on recess and thinks her decision is “badass.”

“This is a choice that I am making to feel more in control of my life,” Ocasio-Cortez, who has been engaged to Riley Roberts since 2022, said. “And if people want to make assumptions about my decision, let them make those assumptions.”

Egg-harvesting may allow women to increase their chances of a successful pregnancy later in life, as women’s egg quality often declines rapidly in their mid-30s.

Women may also freeze their eggs because of medical conditions such as cancer, endometriosis, fibroids, ovarian cysts and PMOS, or before undergoing treatments such as chemotherapy that can damage fertility

But what do the chances of having a baby from the process hinge on, and what can impact success rates?

What are the odds of successful egg freezing?

The procedure involves taking unfertilized eggs from the ovaries, then storing them at subzero temperatures until the woman is ready to have them fertilized and implanted — either in their own uterus or in a surrogate.

Success rates depend heavily on the person’s age when the eggs were frozen and the total number of mature eggs stored.

A study published in Fertility and Sterility found women under the age of 40 who froze their eggs had increasing success rates in terms of pregnancy based on the number of eggs stored:

• Fewer than 10 eggs frozen: 58.3% success rate.
• Between 10 and 14 eggs: 66.7% success rate.
• Freezing 15 to 19 eggs: 67.9% success rate.
• 20 or more eggs: 81.8% success rate.

But how much the process realistically increases someone’s chances of having kids depends on several factors, according to Dr. Jennifer Blakemore, a reproductive endocrinologist and infertility specialist at NYU Langone Health.

“It does depend on who you are, what your goals are and what you have,” Blakemore previously told The Post. “Not every egg leads to a baby.”

Eggs retrieved during egg freezing — which is similar to the first stages of IVF and involves hormone injections, regular bloodwork and a minor surgical procedure — have to survive several hurdles before they can result in a baby.

And the numbers shrink at each step.

First, the eggs have to survive being thawed. Research found that about 80% to 90% of eggs survive thawing, roughly three quarters get fertilized, less than half become blastocysts (an early stage of embryo development), and about 40% of fresh embryo transfers result in a live birth.

So if a woman freezes 20 mature eggs, 12 may fertilize and seven would become blastocysts. An embryo then still has to implant and develop into a healthy pregnancy.

Does age impact the process?

Age affects both the number and quality of eggs that can be retrieved.

The same Fertility and Sterility study also found that the success rate of a live birth dropped with age.

Those who froze at least 20 eggs before the age of 35 had an 88.9% chance of a live birth. The rate dropped to 80% for those between 35 and 37, and again to 72.7% for women ages 38 to 40.

The optimal time to freeze eggs? The younger, the better.

“The younger the egg is, the more likely it is to have success and the more likely you can have that egg over the course of your reproductive lifetime,” Blakemore said. “Generally, we recommend in the later 20s or early 30s.”

However, she stressed that women can undergo the process whenever they feel ready.

Has technology improved in recent years?

Tens of thousands of women undergo egg freezing year after year, with planned cycles nearly quadrupling from 4,153 in 2014 to 16,436 in 2021.

“The increase in popularity is largely due to improvements in the freezing technology,” Dr. Tomer Singer, system chief of reproductive endocrinology and infertility at Northwell Health, previously told The Post.

The biggest advance has been vitrification, or flash-freezing, which largely replaced older, slower freezing techniques since the mid-2000s. It’s drastically increased the survival rate of thawed eggs from 65% to 85%. Fertilization rates were also higher with vitrification, at 79% versus 74% with slow freezing.

How often do people have babies from frozen eggs?

Success rates of women having babies from frozen eggs depend on various factors, including how many eggs are retrieved and survive freezing and thawing, fertilize successfully and develop into embryos.

But studies have found that many women don’t end up using their frozen eggs at all.

A 2026 review found that after 10 years, 81% of women who froze their eggs between the ages of 34 and 38 were still keeping them in storage.

Meanwhile, only 7.6% had returned to thaw their eggs, although some had also transferred them elsewhere and may have used them at another clinic.

There are lots of reasons a woman may not use frozen eggs, including that they conceive naturally or through IVF. They may also choose not to have a baby, or may not find a partner to reproduce with.