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9 hours ago
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Arch Manning is already the early talk of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Manning, who is preparing for his first season as the full-time starter for the Texas Longhorns, hasn't talked about his future publicly. The junior-to-be quarterback comes from NFL royalty, with both Uncles Peyton and Eli being selected No. 1 overall. Grandfather Archie Manning was the No. 2 pick in 1971 by the Saints, who, notably, haven't taken a QB in the first round of the draft since.
So, it's not a surprise that early 2026 NFL Big Boards and NFL Mock Drafts have Manning in that No. 1 spot.
Manning is 2-0 as a starter and has appeared in nine total games for the Longhorns the past two seasons. He's offered glimpses of that high-end talent – especially with a nice touch on deep passes. He finished 8 of 19 (42.1%) for 327 yards, four TDs and one interceptions on passes of 20 yards or more last season, according to Pro Football Focus. Manning also had 108 rushing yards and four TDs last season. He has an exciting NFL skillset, prototypical size, and, of course, great genes.
So, does that mean the NFL teams that passed on a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft have a chance with Manning? Maybe.
But what if he decides to stay at Texas for his senior season? Here are a few reasons why that is a possibility.
Why Arch Manning would benefit from senior year at Texas
Archie Manning presented Cam Ward with the Manning Award on Jan. 29. Ward, of course, was the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Archie had some telling comments about Ward at the event.
“You were headed to the NFL and made a decision to play another year of college football,“ Manning said. “It looks like a very wise decision. Looking back on it, I'm sure Cam will admit another year of college football prepares you for that big transition to the NFL.”
Wouldn't that same advice apply to Arch Manning? Of the 21 quarterbacks who have been selected with the No. 1 pick in 1998 – when Peyton Manning was the No. 1 pick – only two had a single year of experience as a full-time starter at the FBS level.
QBs selected with No. 1 pick since 1998
| YEAR | QB | YEARS | FBS STARTER |
| 1998 | Peyton Manning | 4 | 4 |
| 1999 | Tim Couch | 3 | 2 |
| 2001 | Michael Vick | 3 | 2 |
| 2002 | David Carr | 4 | 2 |
| 2003 | Carson Palmer | 5 | 3 |
| 2004 | Eli Manning | 5 | 3 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith | 3 | 2 |
| 2007 | JaMarcus Russell | 3 | 2 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | 3 | 3 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | 4 | 3 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 4 | 1 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | 4 | 3 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | 3 | 2 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | 3 | 3 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 5 | 3 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | 4 | 1 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | 5 | 2 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 3 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young | 3 | 2 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams | 3 | 2 |
| 2025 | Cam Ward | 5 | 3 |
Who were those quarterbacks? Cam Newton, who spent two years at Florida and one at Blinn College before one of the greatest single seasons at Auburn in a national championship run in 2010. And Kyler Murray, who had to sit out a year after transferring from Texas A&M to Oklahoma and waited his turn before a fantastic 2018 season.
Newton and Murray each won the Heisman Trophy. Newton won a national championship.
Manning QB1 in a different era with the transfer portal and the expanded College Football Playoff. He waited two years behind Quinn Ewers to be the Longhorns' starter. 10 of those No. 1 picks started at least three seasons in college.
That includes both of his uncles.
Arch Manning could follow Peyton, Eli college precedent
The Mannings have shown patience at the college level.
Archie Manning was a three-year starter at Ole Miss – but he played at a time where juniors were not yet allowed to enter the NFL Draft.
Peyton Manning took the starting job halfway through his freshman season at Tennessee in 1994, and he surprised the college football world by returning for his senior season. Manning led Tennessee to an 11-2 record and was the Heisman Trophy runner up in 1997. The Vols' only losses were to No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Nebraska.
Eli Manning redshirted as a freshman at Ole Miss and was the backup for Romero Miller in 2000. Like Arch, Eli waited two seasons to become the starter for the Rebels. He proceeded to play three seasons with Ole Miss before being selected with the No. 1 pick in the 2004 NFL Draft.
How much does Arch Manning make with NIL at Texas?
There is not an exact amount on how much Manning makes at Texas through Name, Image and Likeness, but he does have the highest NIL valuation in all of college sports. On3Sports.com places that value at $6.6 million.
Caleb Williams – the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft – signed a four-year, $39.5 million contract. Could Manning make half of that – or more – with NIL deals for a senior season at Texas?
The Manning family is no stranger to endorsement deals, but NIL money likely would be a factor in whether Manning decides to turn pro. After all, it was not the deciding factor in his recruitment with the Longhorns.
What is the NFL Draft landscape in 2026?
Let's say Arch Manning delivers on the hype for the Longhorns in 2025 against a schedule that includes a blockbuster opener at Ohio State on Aug. 30. Don't think for a second the Mannings won't look at the NFL Draft landscape before making a decision.
Peyton Manning could have entered the 1997 NFL Draft – where he undoubtedly would have been selected with the No. 1 pick by the Saint Louis Rams. The first quarterback in that draft was not selected until the Arizona Cardinals took Jake Plummer with the No. 42 pick in the second round.
Eli Manning did not want to play for the San Diego Chargers, who selected him with the No. 1 pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. The Chargers traded Manning to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers in one of the controversial moments in NFL Draft history.
Will the same scenario unfold with Arch? He still has to prove it on the field, but it's a safe bet the potential landing spot could also factor into any decisions made before 2026.
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