US Economy Was Already Sputtering Before Trade Pain Kicked In

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South Korea’s CPI may back the case for a rate cut after recent grim GDP data. Indonesia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan also publish CPI statistics. 

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Taiwan reports first-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and trade figures are due during the week from Sri Lanka, Thailand, South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong and the Philippines. 

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On the policy front, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its key rate steady on Thursday as authorities assess the likely impact from tariffs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg have pushed back their expectations for rate hikes, with most seeing the possibility the BOJ may have to stay on hold for the rest of 2025. The second round of US-Japan trade talks, expected mid-week, may shed light on the tariff front.

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A day earlier, the Bank of Thailand is expected to lower borrowing costs by a quarter point. The central bank has cut its policy rate by 50 basis points since October as the growth outlook for Southeast Asia’s second largest economy dims and domestic financial conditions tighten.

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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Euro-area GDP and inflation numbers will be in focus, with data due Friday set to show that the European Central Bank’s task of restoring 2% inflation is almost complete.

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Consumer-price growth probably slowed to 2.1% this month, while an underlying measure that strips out volatile elements such as energy is predicted to have ticked up to 2.5%. 

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ECB policymakers have struck an optimistic tone on inflation of late, with the French central-bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau concluding that there “is currently no inflationary risk in Europe.”

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Numbers from his country, due on Wednesday, support that statement, with economists predicting a slowdown to just 0.7%. Meanwhile, German and Italian readings will stay above 2%. 

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GDP data the same day will show the state of the economy before Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. France’s output probably grew just 0.1%, while Germany, Italy and the wider euro area each expanded 0.2%. Economic growth and GDP indicator numbers are also due across Europe, including from Ireland, Sweden and Poland.

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Earlier in the week, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and Governing Council members Olli Rehn, Robert Holzmann and Madis Muller are scheduled to make appearances, and the Frankfurt-based central bank publishes its monthly survey of consumers’ inflation expectations.  

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Elsewhere in the region, UK mortgage and house price numbers are due, with Bloomberg Economics predicting the country’s housing market will enter a soft patch.  

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Further south, Kenya’s central bank expects annual inflation to quicken to 4.2% from 3.6% in March on the back of tight supplies of vegetables and cornmeal, the nation’s staple.

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Latin America

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In a busy week, Brazil posts the central bank’s weekly survey of economists, government debt totals, current account, foreign direct investment, nominal and primary budget balance data, along with its broadest measure of inflation.