What do Inter Miami need to qualify for Club World Cup Round of 16? Scenarios explained ahead of Palmeiras match

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The Club World Cup group stage concludes this week as teams compete for places in the knockout rounds.

In Group A, Palmeiras and Lionel Messi's Inter Miami lead the way and have their fate in their own hands ahead of a meeting in Miami on Monday.

Should both go through, they would eliminate Portuguese giants Porto and Egyptian side Al Ahly, both of whom would have been hoping to reach the Round of 16 prior to the start of the tournament.

On the final matchday of the group phase, Inter Miami and Palmeiras must face each other to determine who will qualify as group winners. What fans of both teams want to know is exactly what results are needed to secure their places in the knockouts of the new, expanded tournament.

The Sporting News breaks down the scenarios below.

MORE: Bracket and standings for Club World Cup 2025

Inter Miami and Palmeiras are both on four points after two games. Obviously, if either team win today, they will go through as group winners (neither Porto nor Al Ahly would be able to catch them).

Should Inter Miami win their group, they would face the runners-up from Group B, which is likely to be either Atletico Madrid or Botafogo.

A draw against Palmeiras would leave both teams on five points, and this is where various tiebreakers come in. Firstly, it would come down to the head-to-head record between the two teams, but since that would be a draw, it would go to the next criterion: goal difference. As Palmeiras have a +2 differential, the Brazilians would top the group (Inter Miami's is +1).

If Inter Miami lose to Palmeiras, the Verdao would top the table and the Herons would have to wait for the result of the game between Porto and Al Ahly, who each have one point after two matches.

If the Portuguese side win that game, they would be level with Inter Miami on four points, but as Messi and company won their meeting 2-1, they would go through on the head-to-head tiebreaker.

What if Al Ahly pull off a surprise against Porto? Well, they would also go level with Inter Miami on four points, and since the score between those two was a 0-0 draw, goal difference will come into play. It is possible that both teams could end up level on goal differential and goals scored depending on results today, in which case the standings will be determined by disciplinary points, i.e. the team with the fewest yellow and red cards will progress.

If, incredibly, the teams are still level at that point, FIFA will determine who goes through by drawing lots.

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