Warsh and US Inflation Will Set Tone for July Fed Decision

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Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

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Asia

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A highlight in Asia will be the Bank of Korea’s policy decision. Since taking the helm in April, Governor Shin Hyun Song has warned that inflation, solid economic growth, a weak won and surging home prices all point to tighter monetary policy, and economists expect him to put his words into action on Thursday by raising the base rate to 2.75%.

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The main regional data release comes on Wednesday with China’s second-quarter gross domestic product. Growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.5% year-on-year, dragging the year-to-date rate to 4.8%.

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The figures may underscore the divide between solid exports and sluggish domestic demand. On that note, China’s retail sales, due the same day, are expected to have slipped again in June after declining in May for the first time since 2022. 

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Also publishing GDP figures in the coming week are Singapore, where growth is seen slowing a tad, and Malaysia. 

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India updates on price trends with its release Monday of the June consumer-price index. The gauge is forecast to accelerate to 4.3%, in what would be the fastest advance since 2024. That’s still below the Reserve Bank’s 5.1% target for the fiscal year, but could prompt more hawkish comments when the central bank next sets policy on Aug. 5. 

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Australia releases a pair of sentiment gauges; the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index has recently slumped toward two-year lows, while the NAB business confidence reading may stay negative for a fifth straight month. 

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India releases its June jobless rate on Wednesday, and trade data are due during the week from China, Singapore and India.

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Europe, Middle East, Africa

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The UK will take the limelight with the release of monthly GDP on Thursday that may show muted growth, along with some appearances by policymakers.

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Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will deliver what’s likely to be her final annual speech to the Mansion House in the London on Tuesday, given that Andy Burnham shows no inclination to keep her on after his impending appointment as prime minister. 

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at the same event, having testified to Parliament earlier in the day on his institution’s latest assessment of financial stability. And BOE chief economist Huw Pill is on the calendar for appearances on Monday and Wednesday.

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In the euro zone, a blackout period in advance of European Central Bank’s next rate decision will start on Thursday. Before then, speakers will include Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Monday and Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta on Wednesday.

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Euro-area industrial production for May comes on Wednesday, followed on successive days by trade figures and a final take of inflation.

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In Switzerland, the central bank on Wednesday will publish a summary of the discussion around its June quarterly decision. And in eastern Europe, Romanian inflation on Monday and possible discussions on a budget bill in Bulgaria will be among the highlights.

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Israel releases consumer-price numbers on Wednesday; annual inflation is expected to ease to 1.6% in June from 1.9%, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Bank of Israel lowered rates this month and suggested they could cut further. 

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Finally, in a quiet week for monetary decisions around the region, Angola’s central bank will meet, with officials expected to cut borrowing costs on Tuesday. 

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