Warriors vs. Timberwolves expert prediction, odds, schedule, and keys to the series for 2025 playoffs matchup

The Warriors and Timberwolves were two of the hottest teams in the league after the trade deadline. With Jimmy Butler in tow, Golden State closed that portion off with a 23-8 record, including an even-better 22-5 in games where Butler and Stephen Curry both played. The Wolves weren't far behind, going 20-10 after the deadline. 

It shouldn't be much of a surprise then that these two teams have made it past the first round against quality opponents. The Wolves erased many of their concerns about Anthony Edwards as a passer, Julius Randle's disappointing playoff performances, and their propensity to make mental mistakes during a dominant five-game series with the Lakers.

The Warriors were more up-and-down in a seven-game series, but left no doubt in the deciding Game 7 that they could still pull out the stops when it mattered. 

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This series could truly go either way. Here's what will determine the winner. 

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Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction

If this series were happening in the first round, the Warriors would have a better chance of success. As is, this is going to be a tough one for them to win. 

Curry has been battling a nagging thumb injury that the Rockets didn't make any better by targeting him throughout the first round. His 38.3 minutes per game in that series was six more than he averaged during the regular season. He's going to have to carry the Warriors, and he only has one day of rest before this next series starts for him. 

The Warriors are also going to need Green, who is either one Flagrant 2 or two Flagrant 1 fouls away from incurring an automatic suspension. Given his history with Rudy Gobert, who he put in a chokehold last year, he could miss some time if he can't keep his emotions under control. 

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The Warriors can't afford for that to happen. The Rockets weren't a great matchup for them given the sheer size that Houston had on their team. The Wolves present similar issues.

Gobert feasted on smaller Laker lineups, scoring 27 points and grabbing 24 rebounds in the closeout Game 5. Randle played the best playoff series of his life too, bulldozing his way to 22.6 points, and a very impressive 4.4 assists. Minnesota also has the best backup big in the league in Naz Reid. 

The Warriors don't have that type of big man depth. They tried Jonathan Kuminga for brief spurts in the first round, and he was largely ineffective. So, too, were Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Rookie Quentin Post can stretch the floor but isn't ready for huge minutes. 

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The Wolves have great versatility up and down their roster. The Warriors, not so much. That makes a big difference in the playoffs, where coach Chris Finch has a host of adjustments and styles that he can go to. He has tried multiple different closing lineups throughout the season, and that flexibility can steal them games. 

Add in that Edwards has improved as a passer, making it much harder to double-team him, and the Wolves have too much to throw at a very good Warriors team. 

Prediction: Wolves in 6

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Warriors vs. Timberwolves betting odds

According to DraftKings, the Wolves are -175 favorites to win the series against the +150 Warriors.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves regular season series

The Warriors took the season series 3-1, but these teams have not played since Butler was acquired. 

• Dec. 6, 2024: Wolves 107, Warriors 90
• Dec. 8, 2024: Warriors 114, Wolves 106
• Dec. 21, 2024: Warriors 113, Wolves 103
• Jan. 15, 2025: Warriors 116, Wolves 115

The Wolves' defense was stifling in their first matchup against the Warriors. They held Golden State to just 18 points in the fourth quarter and forced several long scoring droughts throughout the game. They weren't quite at that same level over the next three games. 

In their second matchup of the season, the Wolves couldn't contain Curry, who scored 30, or Buddy Hield, who had 27. Green made things memorable by breaking out Curry's signature night-night celebration late in the game. 

Curry carried a depleted Warriors team that was missing Green in the last meeting of the season, scoring 31 points and preventing a late comeback from the Wolves. 

MORE: Dame Lillard's injury could mean end of Giannis in Milwaukee

Warriors vs. Timberwolves key storylines

How far can Playoff Jimmy take the Warriors? 

Butler is known as one of the league's great playoff risers. He's proven that again this year. Despite taking a hard fall in Game 2 of the first round which caused a pelvic contusion, he averaged 18.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists while clearly struggling with his mobility. 

Butler is no fan favorite in Minnesota after he forced his way off the team in 2018. He hasn't played the Wolves this season due to a combination of his suspensions and mid-season trades. The Wolves have good options to throw at him. Edwards and Jaden McDaniels should take the primary assignments. 

Keeping Butler off the free throw line will be key for Minnesota. Butler is fourth in the playoffs with 44 attempts. McDaniels in particular has had issues with staying down on Butler's pump fakes in the past. He will have to be disciplined. 

Will Bully ball work? 

The Rockets mauled the Warriors on the offensive glass in the first round, rebounding 35.8 percent of their misses. The only team to rebound at a better rate were the Wolves, who got 36.5 percent of their misses off the Lakers. 

That spells big trouble for Golden State. Their best lineups are their small ones, with Green at center. The Warriors tried to counter by intentionally fouling Steven Adams, who is a shaky free throw shooter. Gobert (67.4 percent), Randle (80.6 percent), and Reid (77.6 percent) are too strong from the line to offer that option. 

How do the Warriors guard Anthony Edwards? 

The Lakers had zero answers for Edwards, who was easily the best player in that series. He was one of the best 3-point shooters in the league during the regular season but didn't shoot it well from deep in the playoffs. It didn't matter because he was so electric at getting to the rim and collapsing the defense. 

This could be an important series for Gary Payton II, who has defended Edwards well in the past. It will also be a test for an aggressive Warriors defense that isn't afraid to get into rotation and put two on the ball. Edwards destroyed that coverage against the Lakers. Golden State will have to execute it better. 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves schedule

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