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Apr 08, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) looks on in the second half against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
The NBA is changing how the draft lottery works.
And believe it or not, that could have a big impact on the Golden State Warriors' chances of trading for Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo.
In summation, the league is going to reduce the absolute worst teams' overall chances of picking at the top of the draft.
The teams that miss the postseason will have a much more even chance of ascending to the No. 1 pick, or one of the few after it.
And so essentially, in future seasons, the most valuable picks to have will simply be of the teams that are probably going to miss the playoffs.
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You don't need to have the absolute bottom feeders' selections. You just need mediocre teams' selections.
The Warriors, relative to most teams pursuing Giannis, might fit that bill. With their age, even trading for Antetokounmpo only opens the window up for a few years.
Eventually, their future picks may be in the lottery. That's a lot harder to see with a team like Boston.
If the Bucks trade Giannis, they should prioritize as many 1st round picks and swaps from teams that aren’t a lock to be a contender.
With potential new anti-tanking rules, 1st round picks become much more valuable.
The Warriors are old. Those picks are extremely valuable.
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There is always the chance, noted by insider Marc Stein in a new article, that these changes (and any that might still follow) could reduce draft pick trading in the near term as teams try to figure out what the full picture is going to look like.
That might not help the Bucks, though. If this is the summer that Giannis gets traded, then they'll just have to navigate the best they can, and it makes more sense to bet on picks from a team that seems more likely to be poor in five years.
It's not a perfect formula regardless, because any team the Bucks trade Antetokounmpo to has a chance to be good for a bunch of years to come simply because they have Giannis.
But at least the aging happening in Golden State makes them a candidate to eventually fall off the table and make those picks particularly valuable.
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