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Owen McCown of UTSA throws the ball.
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The 2025 season may end in disappointment for both UTSA and South Florida, but both of these teams should be considered among the strongest in the Group of 5.
USF was one of the surprise packages in the early going with wins over Boise State and Florida, but the Bulls dropped a tough one to Memphis last week to derail their hopes of going to the College Football Playoff.
The AAC Championship Game is still a possibility for USF, but it will require the Bulls to go undefeated down the stretch and get some help.
UTSA’s hopes are dimmer than that, but the Roadrunners do still have a chance to win the AAC, so long as they beat USF on Thursday.
UTSA vs. USF odds, prediction
The Roadrunners clock into this game as a two-score underdog, but they shouldn’t be overlooked. Just ask Tulane, which got throttled at the Alamodome, 48-26, in Week 10.
That was easily the best performance of the season from the Roadrunners, who looked dead in the water after a 55-17 defeat against North Texas in their previous outing.
Those two results showed the good and bad for UTSA this season. The Roadrunners can light up a scoreboard with the best teams in the Group of 5, but the defense has been a mess all season. According to SP+, the Roadrunners boast the 37th-best offense in the country, but the defense ranks 98th.
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The tale of the tape is similar for USF, though the Bulls grade out better in both facets of the game, ranking 22nd on offense and 63rd on defense, per SP+.
South Florida’s offense, which has lit up plenty of opponents this season, should make inroads against a leaky defense, but the Roadrunners did show some signs of improvement against Tulane, and they’ve got the scoring power to keep pace with the Bulls.
UTSA has backdoor potential, especially if you’re getting 14 and the hook.
The Play: UTSA +14.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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