US Tariff Countdown Has Nations Racing to Turn Talks Into Deals

The Wan Hai 331 container ship, operated by Wan Hai Line Ltd., right, and Posorja Express container ship, operated by Hapag-Lloyd AG, moored at a shipping terminal in Yokohama, Japan, on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. Japan is scheduled to release trade figures on April 17. Photo by Toru Hanai /Bloomberg

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Halfway through President Donald Trump’s 90-day freeze on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, a persistent gripe from businesses, consumers and governments facing them is severe uncertainty. The next 45 days may not provide much relief from the fog.

Article content

Article content

Trump himself has indicated that talks won’t lead to agreements for every nation before the July deadline, saying that 150 countries “want to make a deal” but that many will be assigned their tariff level. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “if they’re not negotiating in good faith, they are going to get a letter saying ‘here is the rate.’”

Article content

Article content

Kelly Ann Shaw, a partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld and former senior Trump trade adviser, said she expects a flurry of deals will come together near the end of the tariff suspension period on July 9.

Article content

Article content

“Ninety days is an incredibly ambitious period of time,” she said. “My sense is these are real negotiations for the approximately 18 key trading partners and that, after July 9th, countries left on the cutting room floor will be handed a document with commitments that they can either take or leave in exchange for a new tariff rate.”

Article content

At stake in all the negotiations are more than just trophies on Trump’s trade policy mantel. Central bankers including the Federal Reserve see tariffs — and the potential for higher ones — as restraints on growth, disruptive for financial markets and contributors to inflation as they set interest rates. The longer it takes to strike deals that lower tariffs, the longer the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged.

Article content

Here’s a rundown of the tariffs facing some of the biggest US trading partners and the efforts made so far to avoid them:

Article content

United Kingdom – 10%

Article content

Article content

Trump hailed the May 8 announcement of a pact with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as a “full and comprehensive” agreement despite the fact that it covers a limited number of sectors and leaves the US’s 10% baseline tariff on goods intact. It included carve-outs for Britain’s auto and steel industries, which face 25% US sectoral tariffs that sparked warnings of job losses. Still unclear are when tariff reductions would come into force and key details such as the size of a quota for UK steel exports and the nature of US security requirements regarding ownership of British steel plants.

Article content

China – 34%

Article content

Facing growing pressure from wobbly financial markets and American importers worried about shortages and higher costs, Trump announced May 12 that for a 90-day period, the US would reduce its cumulative 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and leave a 30% levy in place, while China lowered its tax on American imports by the same amount to 10%. The pause until mid-August will give Washington and Beijing time to hold a series of talks using what Bessent calls a “mechanism” to negotiate. Bessent said the “phase one deal” that Trump signed with China in January 2020 served as a template for current aspirations, though “the world has changed, products have changed, product mix has changed — so I think everything is on the table.”