US Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Sites, Risking Wider War in Mideast

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The US strikes could lead to attacks on American assets in the Middle East. Earlier in the conflict, Khamenei warned Washington of “irreparable damage” if it bombed his country.

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The US will likely have to put its troops on high alert. It has around 50,000 service members in the region, the bulk being in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

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In Yemen, the Houthis, a militant group backed by Iran, issued fresh threats against US commercial and naval ships. Until a ceasefire in early May, the Houthis were regularly firing drones and missiles at Western vessels and warships in the southern Red Sea.

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It’s also possible that Tehran opts to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to Ali Vaez, the director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project and a long-time analyst of the country’s atomic program. 

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The NPT is the bedrock arms-control agreement that compels signatories to accept inspections from the IAEA. If Iran left, the world would get even less information about what remains of its atomic sites.

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Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, left the door open for such an eventuality, questioning the treaty’s effectiveness since it failed to “protect” Iran from attacks.

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“I hope that the Iranians are measured in their response but there will be a response,” said Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center. “This is an act of war by the United States against a foreign country which has not attacked us lately.”

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Israel was notified in advance of the strikes, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the US and Israel had coordinated fully on the attacks.

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The likelihood of an imminent strike seemed to have eased when Trump’s team said on Thursday he would make a decision within two weeks. 

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On Friday, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK met their Iranian counterpart, Araghchi, in Geneva to try to get Tehran to restart nuclear talks with the US. The UK said on Sunday it didn’t take part in the overnight strikes.

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Iran had been in negotiations with the US for about two months, but called them off after Israel started bombing its territory. 

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The two had made some progress toward a deal that would curb Tehran’s atomic activities in return for sanctions relief, but stalled on enrichment. Iran insisted it must be allowed to continue that process, even if to the low level needed for civilian purposes. Trump and Israel said it shouldn’t be able to carry out any enrichment at all.

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Energy Prices

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The war between Israel and Iran has evoked fears of conflict with high civilian casualties and that spreads to other countries in the energy-rich region, disrupting flows of oil and liquefied natural gas. Those concerns among world powers and investors will probably increase in light of the American intervention.

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The most immediate impact on the global economy could be through higher crude and LNG prices. About a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors such as Saudi Arabia. One option for Iran would be to hit or hassle crude and LNG tankers passing through the area.

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Brent crude closed on Friday at just over $77 a barrel, up 11% since the conflict began. Another rise when global markets reopen on Monday morning will further complicate the task of major central banks as they seek to slow inflation.

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For days, Trump had faced conflicting advice from his supporters, after he campaigned on promises to keep the US out of foreign wars, pointing to American involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq this century. MAGA allies, including longtime Trump supporter Steve Bannon, have warned against any US intervention, insisting this is Israel’s fight to finish.