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(Bloomberg) — US natural gas futures rose as forecasts shifted to show hotter weather in the coming weeks, signaling increased cooling demand for power-plant fuel as homes and businesses crank up air-conditioners. Intraday prices for the front-month contract reached more than $3 per million British thermal units for the first time since late March.
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Significant short exposure by hedge funds last week threatens further price gains via a short squeeze, said Eli Rubin, senior energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group. Money managers last week moved to their least bullish position — as well as having the largest short-only position — in 18 months, according to weekly futures and options data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on seven Henry Hub contracts.
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- Futures for June delivery +5.5c, or +1.9%, to $3.015/mmbtu on Nymex, as of 9:19am ET
- The June contract on the 9-day RSI indicator is at 67.1, close to the overbought level of 70
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Weather:
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- Forecasts shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across the Upper Midwest from May 28 to June 1: Commodity Weather Group
- See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA
- Click here for two-week temperature forecasts for the U.S.
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Daily BNEF Gas Data:
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- Lower-48 dry gas production on Monday ~108.9 bcf/day, or +1.3% y/y
- Lower-48 total gas demand on Monday ~69.9 bcf/day, or +9.2% y/y
- Dry gas exports to Mexico on Monday ~5.6 bcf/day, or -24% w/w
- Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals on Monday ~17.9 bcf/day, or +1.7% w/w
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Gas Market News:
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- European Gas Has Longest Run of Gains in 2 Years on Iran Impasse
- LNG WRAP: Chinese Buyers Seek Cargoes as Iran War Crimps Supply
- Funds Raise US Gas Net Short Stake to 17-Month High: BNEF Chart
- Iranian Media Said US Offered Interim Waiver on Oil Sanctions
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English (US)