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(Bloomberg) — The United Nations warned that as many as 45 million more people could face acute hunger if the conflict in Iran doesn’t ease by the middle of the year, taking the total number to a record high.
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The near shutdown of the critical Strait of Hormuz and mounting risks to traffic in the Red Sea are already increasing energy, fuel and fertilizer costs, deepening hunger beyond the Middle East, the UN’s World Food Programme said in a statement on Tuesday. That could push the number of people in acute food insecurity to 363 million, eclipsing the hunger levels that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it added.
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“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau.
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The WFP said energy and food markets were tightly correlated, with the disruption to maritime traffic in the Gulf rippling out to impact the most vulnerable in countries such as Sudan and Somalia, where prices of essential commodities have already soared.
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Nations in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, which are heavily reliant on food and fuel imports, are most exposed to fallout from the conflict, the WFP said. Projections indicate that the number of food-insecure people in those regions is set to jump by about a fifth, it added.
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Fertilizer shortages and higher energy costs threaten crop yields, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in a separate report, warning that tighter grain supplies could trigger cross-commodity price contagion, further raising food prices in low-income, import-dependent countries. It estimated that global fertilizer prices could average 15% to 20% higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis continues.
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Potential shifts to biofuel production, spurred by oil price spikes, could amplify food price volatility, particularly in Africa, Asia and other import-dependent regions, the FAO said.
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—With assistance from Agnieszka de Sousa.
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(Updates with comments from the FAO starting in sixth paragraph.)
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