Ukraine and Allies Grow Confident Russia’s Invasion Losing Steam

rgjyiqa)caqodo99mi6sbg]h_media_dl_1.png Institute for the Study of War a

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Ukraine and its allies are increasingly confident that Russia’s invasion is running out of steam as Kyiv stabilizes the front line and stalls a spring offensive by Moscow.

Article content

Ukraine’s growing effectiveness at deploying drones to inflict heavy Russian troop losses is being matched by strikes behind the front lines and deep inside Russia that are stoking increasing domestic criticism of President Vladimir Putin. Alongside an economic slowdown and restrictions on the internet, that’s leading to a deepening war fatigue among ordinary Russians.

Article content

Article content

Article content

The nervous mood is shared by many in Russia’s elite, with some senior Kremlin officials believing the conflict has reached a dead end with no clear way to resolve it, people familiar with situation said.

Article content

Article content

Putin wants to conclude the war by the end of this year, but only on what he sees as victorious terms, including full control over the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region that his forces have failed to capture for more than a decade, according to one of the people, while also seeking a broader security agreement with Europe that would effectively acknowledge Moscow’s territorial gains.

Article content

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Putin had set any such deadline.

Article content

Ukraine on Thursday announced a major security buildup in the north of the country after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned about the risk of a potential Russian offensive from Bryansk region and Belarus, mirroring a failed attempt to seize Kyiv in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion.

Article content

Even as Ukraine is bracing for an additional Russian push this summer, warning that the Kremlin could resort to another unpopular conscription campaign to bolster the offensive, its forces have mostly held the line since fighting picked up after a winter lull. They stabilized much of the front by mid-May, according to data from DeepState, a conflict mapping service that cooperates with Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

Article content

Article content

Kyiv has also significantly improved its casualty ratio to roughly one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russian troops, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said last month. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio repeated that assessment in a Fox News interview May 13, saying Ukraine now had Europe’s “most powerful armed forces.”

Article content

Drones deployed in growing numbers by Ukraine have become a game changer in the war, helping to offset a manpower disadvantage that’s dogged Kyiv since Russia’s full-scale invasion began more than four years ago.

Article content

Still, Kyiv has also failed to achieve its strategic goals, neither reclaiming most of the territory Russia is occupying nor moving closer to an acceptable peace deal in US-led negotiations that are currently stalled.

Article content

Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told reporters earlier this week Ukraine has significantly “slowed the enemy’s advance and is gradually regaining the initiative.” About 35,203 Russian soldiers were killed or severely wounded in April and the goal is “to inflict at least 200 enemy losses for every square kilometer of advance,” he said.