Gold Steady as US-Iran Signals Keep Rate Hike Bets Simmering

One kilogram gold bars stacked at the Perth Mint Refinery, operated by Gold Corp., in Perth, Australia, on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026. The reversal came as the stock market was whipsawed by volatility, Bitcoin tumbled and what had been a steep run-up in gold and silver prices abruptly reversed, all of which drove investors into the safety of US Treasuries. Photo by Matt Jelonek /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Gold moved in a narrow range as conflicting signals on the progress of US-Iran ceasefire talks continued to keep traders guessing over whether central banks may need to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation.

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Bullion was trading around $4,540 an ounce, little changed from a week earlier. Tehran is in the process of responding to a text submitted by the US, which “has narrowed the gaps to some extent,” the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported on Thursday, without saying where it got the information. 

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While that signaled progress, a Reuters report that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad initially sent oil prices higher. Then President Donald Trump said he opposed efforts by Iran and Oman to establish some form of permanent toll system through Hormuz. 

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The conflicting statements on key issues left it unclear if the two sides were any closer to a deal. 

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For gold traders, this means concerns continue to simmer that the Federal Reserve and other central banks may have to hike rates to contain inflation fueled by rising energy costs. Bullion typically performs well in a lower rate environment, since the metal pays no interest.

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The impasse has seen gold and other precious metals lose their luster with commodity trading advisers, TD Securities strategists including Ryan McKay said in a note. “Our latest pricing scenarios highlight the potential for CTAs to shed nearly all of their net length in the yellow metal in a large downtape scenario toward $4,350 an ounce,” they added.

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Gold has traded in a tight range since falling sharply in the early days of the conflict, as investors weigh higher rates against the prospect of a high-inflation, low-growth scenario. Bullion is down nearly 14% since the war erupted in late February.

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Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,537.43 an ounce at 7:40 a.m. in Singapore. Silver was 0.1% lower at $76.61. Platinum and palladium were little changed. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was also steady.

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