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The Tulane Green Wave (6-1, 3-0) are going to be a factor in deciding who gets into the College Football Playoff from the Group of 5.
With Boise State sitting on two losses, it seems likely that the winner of the AAC will get invited to the dance, so long as that team is on one loss.
Otherwise, it could be James Madison or Boise, depending on how things shake out.
But that’s a conversation for a different day.
On Thursday, the Green Wave need to be focused on the UTSA Roadrunners, who are 5.5-point home underdogs for this AAC clash.
Tulane vs. UTSA odds, prediction
UTSA came into the season with pretty high expectations.
The Roadrunners weren’t considered the class of the AAC, but they weren’t far behind Tulane, Memphis, Navy and USF in most previews.
Things haven’t gone according to plan in San Antonio, however, and the Roadrunners could have a tough time just getting to a bowl game in December.
UTSA quarterback Owen McCown. Getty ImagesThat shouldn’t stop them from relishing the opportunity to play spoiler against Tulane, especially with this tilt airing on the worldwide leader and coming one week before the Green Wave takes on No. 25 Memphis in what is essentially an elimination game.
But it’s not just the motivational angle or the schedule situation that makes UTSA a dangerous underdog Thursday — the numbers suggest these two teams are not that far apart.
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According to SP+, Tulane is the 57th-best team in FBS, and would be a 3.8-point favorite over an average team on a neutral field.
UTSA is essentially that “average team,” with SP+ making the Roadrunners a +0.7 underdog against a bang-average squad.
In other words, according to this particular power rankings system, Tulane’s “true odds” against UTSA would be -4.5 on a neutral site.
When you adjust for home-field advantage and, perhaps, the schedule spot, you can easily see how this tilt gets close to coin-flip territory.
Like any power rankings, SP+ isn’t gospel, but it serves a purpose. It shows you that, despite the records, these two teams are peers.
But, because bettors tend to lean into the team with something to play for, you’re being asked to pay a bit of a premium on Tulane.
Don’t count out the Roadrunners on Thursday.
The Play: UTSA (+185, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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