Trump Says He’ll Let Ukraine Make Patriot Missiles. It Won’t Be Easy

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(Bloomberg) — US President Donald Trump’s suggestion on Wednesday that he would allow Ukraine — desperate for missile defenses after withering Russian strikes — to build its own Patriot interceptors won’t be easy or quick.

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Manufacturing Lockheed Martin Corp. Patriot missiles in war-torn Ukraine, especially at scale, would be a tall order. Just how difficult depends on what type of missile a new production line would produce. The PAC-3 variant, which can shoot down ballistic missiles and costs about $5 million each, is one of the most advanced air defense weapons in the world, and is now built in only two places: The US and Japan.

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“A Patriot missile takes years to build, meaning Ukrainian production of these missiles won’t materialize on the near-term timelines they need,” said Bloomberg Economics defense lead Becca Wasser. “Plus Ukraine’s ability to swiftly produce drones and missiles may not apply to Patriot production, given strict US technology controls.”

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Supply chains for current production are already stressed, and opening a new line would also require specialized equipment and training — both of which would add time to the project.

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In recent days, Ukraine has said its forces weren’t able to shoot down any incoming Russian ballistic missiles as Moscow targeted major cities. That’s underlined the dire need for more Patriots, which Kyiv typically relied on to counter such threats. NATO allies have warned their inventories are limited. 

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Trump suggested his offer of production may mean no new supplies of actual missiles are likely. 

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“This way you can’t complain that we’re not giving them enough,” Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “We haven’t informed the company of that yet, but that’ll work out all right.”

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Some components, such as the missile body, would be relatively easy to make from an industrial standpoint. Solid-rocket motors of the right energy and consistent quality would be much tougher, as would the small steering motors of the PAC-3, which enable it to maneuver effectively in the thin upper atmosphere, and the guidance system that controls them. Few if any of the parts could come off the shelf.

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The PAC-3’s seeker, which steers the missile in the final moments of its flight before it hits a target, is made by Boeing Co. for both the US-based and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries production lines. Boeing declined to comment. Lockheed Martin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Any new weapons factory in Ukraine would be a high priority target for Russian attacks.

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“If I were doing it, I would have the Ukrainians build the factory in Poland,” said William Alberque, a Europe-based senior fellow at the Pacific Forum. “Otherwise it’s going to be a prime target. They’ll never be able to construct it.”

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This week, the Polish government signed an agreement to service European countries’ PAC-3 missiles at a facility in Poland. Russia has not directly attacked any European country or NATO member despite their providing assistance to Ukraine’s military.