Trump’s Troop Withdrawal Leaves Germany’s Base Towns in Limbo

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As part of the peace dividend from the end of the Cold War, the complex was returned to Germany and has become a campus for university students learning about philosophy, history and theology.

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The back and forth over US troops comes as Germany invests to create Europe’s strongest conventional army and lays the groundwork for reviving conscription, a controversial subject for a country that has embraced pacifism in the aftermath of World War II. Uncertainty about the country’s changing defense landscape can be felt especially in Vilseck. 

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The small town in northern Bavaria — close to the Czech border and the former Iron Curtain — hosts a regiment with almost 5,000 soldiers ready to defend NATO, if necessary. The force trains with conventional weapons including combat vehicles and has been at the forefront of testing drones. Should the US reduce or redeploy troops in Europe, the municipality thinks it’s first in line.

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The threat has hung over Vilseck Mayor Thorsten Grädler ever since his first day in office in early May. When he became aware of the issue through local media, he said he was “shocked.” With no official information to go on, he scours the web daily for news that could devastate the community.

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Counting families, the broader region hosts roughly 30,000 Americans, more than a third of which could leave if the US withdraws troops, Vilseck’s mayor estimates. 

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Given the town’s population of about 6,500, a withdrawal would mark “a dramatic blow to the entire economic and social life,” Grädler said.

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The US military has been in the region for over 80 years and is its largest employer today, helping support events like knight camps, a renaissance fair with falcon shows and merchants around the local castle. In terms of hard numbers, the economic contribution to the region is in the range of €650 million to €700 million ($800 million) a year, according to the mayor.

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The potential long-term impact could mean about one full-time job lost for every two soldiers withdrawn, according to a study by the ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research and the University of Cologne.

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The researchers evaluated the effect of troop reductions in the early 1990s, when geopolitical shifts after the Cold War led to the removal of roughly 200,000 US soldiers from Germany in about five years. Municipal revenues declined about 9%, and the negative impacts on employment and public finances are still measurable today. 

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“We noticed that the effects of troop withdrawals are very similar to those of companies closing down in a region,” said Johannes Kochems, one of the co-authors. The study found the most pronounced impact was in rural locations that heavily depend on the bases — an ominous sign for Vilseck. 

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With Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth due to complete a review of the US’s military presence in Europe towards the end of the year, the town isn’t waiting to find out if the worst-case scenario will arrive. 

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To develop an alternative job base, a new industrial park is opening this fall. While that’s a start, Mayor Grädler acknowledges that the region won’t be able to fully offset troop reductions, and attracting investment continues to be challenging as Germany faces a fourth consecutive year without significant growth.

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In the wealthy outskirts of Frankfurt, the region around Wiesbaden hosts about 23,000 troop-affiliated Americans, including soldiers, civilian employees and family members, making it one of the larger US military enclaves in Germany. 

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Several sites and housing areas in and around the capital of the state of Hesse are connected with their own shuttle-bus service. The largest site is the Wiesbaden Army Airfield, which includes sports facilities, restaurants, a chapel and a veterinary clinic. 

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