Trump’s ‘Napkin’ Trade Deals Are Worry for SE Asia, Analyst Says

A container storage yard is seen in Binh Duong City, Binh Duong Province, Vietnam, on Thursday, April 10, 2025. Photographer: Linh Pham/Bloomberg Photo by Linh Pham /Bloomberg

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Nations and businesses need to remain prepared for challenging impacts from US tariffs after next month’s deadline for trade deals, as agreements struck so far are short on firm details or commitments, according to a key policy watcher.

Article content

“I’ve been calling them napkin deals, because I think they are about as durable as a paper napkin and they’re about as well specified as you could write on a paper napkin,” Deborah Elms, head of trade policy of the Hinrich Foundation told the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore on Wednesday. 

Article content

Article content

Article content

Duties set at 15% would remain “significantly higher than we had in March,” and will present difficulties “for a lot of companies and particularly for small businesses that are trying to navigate with fairly thin margins,” Elms said. For Southeast Asia specifically, uneven tariff rates are likely to “create challenges for supply chains,” she said.

Article content

Article content

Trump’s blizzard of recent trade deal announcements have faced criticism for lacking specifics, with key aspects of some agreements still under negotiation. The precise details of promised major investments by counterparties also remain uncertain, including large pledges by the European Union and Japan.

Article content

India may be hit with a tariff rate of 20% to 25%, though a final levy had still not been settled on as the countries negotiate ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, Trump said Tuesday. The US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks, and Trump will make the final call on any extension, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after meetings in Stockholm with Chinese officials.

Article content

Article content

Concerns over trade are also adding to uncertainty over investments and hampering efforts on climate action, Elms said. Global investments into climate technology firms by venture capitalists and private equity firms declined 10% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to data from market intelligence firm PitchBook.

Article content

‘Panic Mode’

Article content

“Many companies are in a bit of a panic mode,” Elms said. “We will continue in the general direction, but it is not gonna be as smooth a process as we might have imagined in December.”

Article content

Even so, for many businesses, long-term commitments to lower emissions are an area of certainty in an otherwise uncertain global environment, Mary Ng, the former Canadian minister for international trade, told the summit.

Article content

“While there isn’t that intense activity around accelerating ESG, I wouldn’t even say that it’s a pause,” said Ng, who stepped down in March ahead of Canada’s election. “All the companies that I’ve been talking to have not stopped the work of looking through their supply chain with ESG in mind because that is just where the puck is going.”

Article content