Trump’s Iran Bind Deepens With Hormuz Shut and Hawks Pushing War

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(Bloomberg) — As President Donald Trump continues to suggest a deal with Iran is close, he finds himself caught between two extremes: Tehran’s demand for an end to attacks and financial relief, and pressure from Republican hawks to “finish the job” — or at least not to sign a bad deal.

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The competing pressures have, so far, kept an agreement to end the war out of reach. And they have resulted in the administration’s messages swinging between promises of an imminent deal to threatening to resume military operations. 

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Adding to the challenge are his own comments over the years lambasting his predecessors for signing or considering deals similar to the one that has the best chance of success.

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This time around, Trump’s own actions have raised the stakes. After a succession of attacks targeting the country’s nuclear program, its military and its missile capabilities, Iran has managed to retain its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz, causing energy prices to soar, fueling inflation and piling pressure on Trump ahead of midterm elections. 

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“This is what is adding to the pressure for the president to come to some kind of resolution,” said Mona Yacoubian, a former US official and Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “How to do that in a way that doesn’t end up looking like Iran has somehow emerged on top is, I think, going to be extraordinarily difficult.”

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The challenge has been underscored by a head-spinning series of developments in recent weeks. The US and Israel launched the war against Iran in late February and agreed to a ceasefire in early April even as Iran retained control over the strait. 

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In the weeks since, Trump has repeatedly said a deal was close and Iran is desperate to end the conflict, even as a solution has never materialized. After speculation late last week that the two sides were on the cusp of an agreement, Trump ordered new strikes on the country over the weekend.

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At a White House cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Trump said he wouldn’t strike a bad deal and insisted “we’re not talking about any easing of sanctions — no money, no nothing.” But then he added: “When they behave properly and when they do what’s right, we’ll let them have their money.”

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In his first term, Trump called former President Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal with Iran “the worst deal ever negotiated” and pulled out of the accord. He criticized the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for lifting “crippling economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for very weak limits on the regime’s nuclear activity,” and for not curbing Iran’s support for militant groups across the Middle East. 

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The White House is now weighing an interim deal that would prioritize opening Hormuz while delaying talks on nuclear issues as well as Iran’s conventional missile program and its support for proxies. That’s mainly due to short-term pressure to lower energy prices fueling discontent in the US.