Trump-Prepping and a Transition Road Map: What to Watch at COP30

Article content

Fossil fuel road map

Article content

After last year’s $1.3 trillion deal on climate finance, developed nations are trying to shift the conversation back to mitigation in order to keep 1.5C alive. At COP28 in Dubai, countries committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels, yet none of the more than 60 updated national climate pledges since then have put in place targets to reduce oil and gas production.

Article content

During his COP30 opening address, Brazil’s President Lula Inácio Lula da Silva said the world needed a road map to “overcome” its dependence on fossil fuels. Agreeing a way forward on that in Belém would be seen as a major victory by progressive countries and activists. However, it’s not clear where a new, transition-oriented initiative might fit in the COP process.

Article content

Countries at COP28 already agreed they’d contribute to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner,” without setting criteria for what that looks like in practice.

Article content

“The truth is that all the fossil-producing countries have agreed to transition away, so we have a mandate,” do Lago told reporters Sunday. “Let’s talk about it.”

Article content

Article content

“It is clear that the fossil fuel industry is not preparing for just, orderly and equitable transition,” said Kalani Kaneko, foreign minister for the Marshall Islands. “Instead, we see a future of supply shocks, conflict of resources, stranded assets and the legacy of dangerous climate change being visited upon us to serve the interest of others.”

Article content

All eyes on Trump

Article content

The US is pulling out of the Paris Agreement, with its exit teed up for Jan. 27 next year, and it hasn’t registered any delegates to attend the talks. Yet US officials could show up at any time until the final gavel falls, since the country still remains part of the Paris accord and the underlying framework convention on climate change.

Article content

Even if that doesn’t happen, the US looms over the negotiations. Under President Donald Trump, the country has asserted a full-throated support for fossil fuels — and a disdain for confronting climate change — and has worked to disrupt action in other multilateral fora, including negotiations on plastics and shipping emissions.

Article content

Adaptation

Article content

Unlike its past two editions, COP30 doesn’t have a big headline deliverable. But one area where negotiators could make real progress is by elevating the need to adapt to climate change — an issue that was highlighted when Hurricane Melissa ripped through Jamaica, causing as much as $4.2 billion of damage.

Article content

Talks will focus on the need to narrow down a list of climate resilience indicators from 400 to about 100 by the end of COP30, resulting in a clearer set of criteria for policy assesment and support. An existing goal to double adaptation finance expires at the end of this year, and some delegates hope a new target will replace it.

Article content

“This COP needs to agree on an adaptation package with a new finance goal at its heart,” Kaneko said. “Our adaptation needs are overwhelming.”

Article content

—With assistance from Akshat Rathi and Alfred Cang.

Article content