Trump Policies Will Cut Deficits Up to $11 Trillion, White House Economist Says

Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran Photo by Stefani Reynolds /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s policies will reduce US fiscal deficits by up to $11 trillion over the coming decade, according to the White House’s chief economist — a projection that defies analysts who say government debt is poised to climb to record highs in coming years.

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“We calculate that, overall, the reduction in deficits as a result of the total suite of the president’s policies is going to be roughly $8.5 to $11 trillion over the 10-year budget window,” Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters on a call Wednesday. “Those are very big numbers.”

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About half the savings, or $3 trillion to $5 trillion, would come from faster economic growth — thanks to the pending Republican tax cut bill, along with deregulation efforts — Miran argued. He also cited a $3 trillion bump in revenues from Trump’s tariff hikes, referring reporters to the Congressional Budget Office’s recent calculation — which came in at $2.8 trillion. Reduced debt loads thanks in part to those savings will help to bring down the US Treasury’s interest costs by approximately $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, he said.

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Miran was speaking on a call touting the benefits of the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” of tax and spending cuts that Trump has called on his party to pass in Congress by July 4. The House passed one draft last month, and the Senate is now aiming to approve its version this week.

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The House-passed version of the package was most recently estimated by the CBO to boost the deficit, not cut it, by some $2.8 trillion. The CBO analysis on tariffs also assumed that the tariff rates in effect as of mid-May would be in place for a decade — even though trade talks are under way that may reduce those levies, and Trump won’t be in office throughout that period.

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Trade Agreements

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A preliminary analysis from the Tax Foundation found the Senate bill would cost $3.9 trillion over a decade, after accounting for economic impacts.

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Miran also said that he’s optimistic there will be a flurry of framework agreements with US trading partners getting announced by July 9, the expiration date for Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs. Agreements will depend on the willingness of other countries to engage, Miran said, adding that he expects there to be “some stubborn holdouts.” Any agreements notwithstanding, Miran said there’s no downside risk to the CBO’s $2.8 trillion estimate for increased revenue from tariffs.

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The CEA offered a breakdown of its analysis showing the impact of Trump’s policies, which included the following estimates:

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