Trump Leaves Allies and Foes Guessing on His Endgame for Iran

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“There are strong motivators on all sides to conclude the military phase of the mission expeditiously,” said Victoria Coates, a former Trump deputy national security adviser now at the Heritage Foundation. It is Trump who has “dominant leverage to set the terms of any negotiations,” she added.

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A senior Arabian Gulf official warned that it would ultimately only be the sustained rise in oil prices that would force Trump to stop fighting and claim victory, leaving regional allies to deal with the residual threat from a wounded and angry Iran.

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For the moment, Trump is vowing to continue the campaign, claiming he’s not ready for a deal — though Iran is. Officials in Tehran remain convinced they can outlast the mercurial US leader, but the damage is mounting.

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Trump pivoted sharply over the weekend to calling for other countries to join the fray to reopen the strait — a possibility seen in those capitals as ranging from questionable to fanciful. From his Florida golf course, Trump sent a string of mixed messages on social media, calling for support in a war he’s said repeatedly he’s won, and for help in a strait his administration has insisted remains open. He claimed Saturday that Iran wanted a deal, which Iran dismissed.

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But Trump’s attempt to wave away concerns with declarations of swift military victory and economic recovery has been stretched thin, with at least 13 Americans killed so far and Trump forced to scramble to ease oil price spikes that further imperil Republicans’ fortunes in a midterm election year. So far, administration efforts to ease the oil-market impact haven’t led to a lasting drop in prices.

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Over the weekend, the White House reiterated that the campaign was planned to last four to six weeks but is ahead of schedule. “We expect that the global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation. 

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Trump’s own political coalition is showing signs of strain. David Sacks, Trump’s AI czar, said on a podcast published Friday that he agreed “we should try to find the off-ramp,” saying Iran’s military has been degraded. “This is a good time to declare victory and get out, and that is clearly what the markets would like to see,” he said, warning the conflict could spiral further.

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And Vice President JD Vance, an avowed skeptic of foreign incursions, has neither embraced the endeavor fully nor criticized it publicly. 

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Still, Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump ally and proxy, praised Trump’s decision to bomb parts of Kharg Island, ending a social media post Saturday with the words of the motto of the US Marine Corps – a nod to the possibility that the US may soon deploy troops on the ground. The US is sending a Marine Expeditionary Force to the region, officials said Friday.

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The US struck military targets on the island, but left intact its oil facilities, which carry the bulk of Iran’s exports.

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The International Energy Agency has warned the war may already represent the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. US gasoline prices have already risen sharply — about 65 cents a gallon since the war began. Public support for the war also appears limited, with recent polls showing Americans divided or leaning against the conflict.

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“He was hoping this would be a very quick war,” Vali Nasr, an Iran specialist and former Obama administration official who is now a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain. “Now this war has gone out of his control. It’s longer, messier and is exacting a cost.”