Trump Hangs Over Canada Conservatives’ Vote on Divisive Leader

aw}f(o9zl8dj0r0(oi6r(38g_media_dl_1.png Abacus Data

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(Bloomberg) — Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has a Donald Trump problem, and it has returned just as he faces a public review from members of his party.

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Every time the US president attacks Canada, Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney seems to benefit at the expense of Poilievre, his only serious political opponent.

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After months of relative quiet, it’s happened again, just before delegates at the Conservative convention in Calgary vote on Poilievre’s leadership, scheduled for late Friday after his keynote address.

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Carney’s blunt Davos speech urging smaller nations to resist pressure from global powers drew international praise — and irritated Trump. The US president lashed out on social media, criticizing Carney’s recent tariff agreement with China and calling him “governor”. He threatened 100% import taxes on Canadian goods, then said he’d decertify Canadian aircraft in retaliation for apparent delays in Canada’s certification of US-made Gulfstream jets. 

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The prime minister has enjoyed a polling bump since the Jan. 20 speech, fueling speculation that he may seek a snap election, which he denies. With Trump once again stirring turmoil in Canada, Poilievre is back in the same bind he faced during last year’s election campaign: how to challenge a US president who is admired by part of his own party’s base. 

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Some 27% of Conservative voters hold a positive view of Trump, an opinion that’s shared by very few non-Conservatives, according to Abacus Data. During the 2025 election, Poilievre drew criticism for not adapting his affordability-focused campaign to push back harder against Trump’s tariffs and “51st state” taunts. 

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Liberals made gains by pointing out that the Conservative leader’s combative rhetoric sometimes echoed the US president’s. The Conservatives won the most seats since 2011 and their highest share of the popular vote since 1988, but they still lost, and Poilievre was defeated in his own seat, which he had held for around 21 years. 

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“Pierre Poilievre’s strength with Conservatives is inseparable from his weakness with everyone else,” David Coletto, chief executive officer of Abacus Data, said in a report earlier this week. 

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“Among Conservative supporters, Poilievre is viewed as principled, strong, and prime minister-worthy. Among everyone else, he is seen as too extreme, Trump-like, and a risk to national unity.”

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Polling consistently shows that most Canadians want their government to take a “hard, firm line” against Trump, even at an economic cost, said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.

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“If the ballot question again is who’s making us feel better — rhetorically, if not practically — on the Trump file, there will be an imperative for Poilievre to demonstrate that he can be as ‘elbows up’ as Mark Carney.”