Trade Shocks Could Wipe Out 90,000 Green Jobs in UK, Study Finds

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(Bloomberg) — Britain risks widespread job losses across the clean-energy sector if global supply chains are hit by shocks, according to a new report that warns the country is too reliant on China for its climate ambitions.

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The UK currently sources about a third of its battery imports from China, and Japan is the leading supplier of cathodes and anodes, the two major components that go into battery cells. It means plans to ramp up domestic battery manufacturing by 2030 will remain heavily reliant on imports.

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Modelling by the Institute for Public Policy Research found that a yearlong interruption at the main suppliers of battery parts could cost as many as 90,000 UK jobs and wipe out production of more than 580,000 electric vehicles from 2030.

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Such a shock would leave domestic carmakers ceding ground to Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturers, with BYD Co. already increasing its UK market share from 0.5% to 2.5% in 2025, and would ripple into other industries such as rail, aerospace and defense manufacturing, the think tank warned in a report published Friday.

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Batteries are just one of the clean-energy areas where the UK is exposed to global markets, just as tensions intensify following US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Disruptions to supplies of solar panels, steel and critical minerals also threaten the transition to net zero carbon emissions and jobs in regions already weakened by industrial decline, the report said.

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“Trump’s trade war with China, the rise of conflicts around the world – these shocks ultimately hurt the UK economy because we rely so much on trade to source the essentials, including clean energy technologies,” said Pranesh Narayanan, senior research fellow at the IPPR.

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The situation around critical minerals, which are key inputs for manufacturing clean-energy equipment, from battery components to permanent magnets used in wind turbines, is particularly concerning, the report said. China dominates the refinement of most critical minerals and has reverted to export controls for those that are in scarce supply. 

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The IPPR also estimated that delays to solar deployment and continued reliance on gas could also add about £1.5 billion ($2 billion) a year to energy import costs. 

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The researcher offered some policy recommendations to increase the UK’s energy resilience. It said the government should invest in domestic production, diversify supply with allies, build strategic stockpiles and set out a clear stance on Chinese involvement in the most critical supply chains.

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“The UK is a small open trading nation sailing through an international economy whose waters are getting choppier by the day,” Narayanan said.

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