Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds, Picks and Best Bets for Game 3

Leading 2-0, the Oklahoma City Thunder can go for the kill shot Saturday night in Minnesota.

The Wolves have had no answer for 2025 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has scored 30 or more points in each of his last five games. Minnesota has gotten precious little from its big men, and Julius Randle flamed out in Game 2. No NBA team has ever come back from a series trailing 3-0.

Minnesota is 4-1 at home in the playoffs and has to hope that a return to the friendly rims at the Target Center will help.

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Thunder at Wolves Game 3 Odds

This NBA betting line opened at some places with the Thunder laying as much as four points, but 24 hours before tipoff it had dropped to 2.5. That would be the smallest number they’ve been favored by the entire playoffs.

The Thunder haven’t been underdogs since March 12. In the playoffs, the Thunder are 6-7 against the spread and 6-7 over/under. OKC covered both games of the series so far easily.

Minnesota has covered the spread in its last seven games as a home underdog against Western Conference foes. They’re 9-1 in their last 10 at home. The Wolves are 8-4 against the spread in the playoffs and 6-6 over under.

The total of 218 is the same as it was for Game 2. This season, Minnesota is 12-14 straight up as underdogs.

Thunder at Wolves Game 3 Preview

I hate to say I told you so, but I predicted Game 2 would follow a similar script to Game 1, and it pretty much did. OKC rode a big third quarter to a 24-point lead. Unlike Game 1, Minnesota rallied to within 10 in the fourth, but there was never a time it felt like OKC was in trouble.

Minnesota have been helpless against ‘Mr. Skinny’ Chet Holmgren, who has 37 points in two games. That’s more than Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid have scored combined (21). Jalen Williams had 26 and 10 in Game 2 and when he’s hot, it’s another weapon in the OKC bag.

I think some of the gripes about SGA and the drawing fouls are legit, but in Game 2, Minnesota made more free throws than the Thunder did. That blows that theory out of the water.

The Wolves have been better at home (29-17) than on the road (28-20), while the Thunder are 35-10 in their road uniforms. Anthony Edwards has 50 points in two games for Minnesota but isn’t getting much help.

Thunder at Wolves Game 3 Prediction

I’m stunned to see the line going toward Minnesota. The Wolves haven’t shown this series that they can handle the Thunder’s defense (31 turnovers in two games) and haven’t figured out what to do with SGA and company. SGA likes to drive, but his mid-range game is first-rate and he has a knack for making the pass just as the defense collapses on him.

It’s tempting to watch the first two games and think, well, this one, this is the one the Wolves will get. They’re back home. Edwards could go for 40, Randle has to play better, but I don’t see it. It’s fair to wonder if Minnesota got a break getting here against the Lakers Soap Opera and the Steph Curry-less Warriors. OKC has been the real deal, and it’s hard to find any reason not to lay the points.

The Pick: Thunder -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)