Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds, Picks and Predictions for Game 6

Oklahoma City looks to get to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016 when it faces Denver at Ball Arena in Game 6.

OKC leads the series 3-2. Denver has had leads in the fourth quarter each of the last two games, only to see the Thunder rally. The Thunder are favored tonight, and the total is pretty high.

Throw out lopsided Game 2 (a 43-point Thunder win), and this series has been close.

Thunder at Nuggets Game 6 odds

OKC is laying 4.5 points on the road. The Thunder are 3-6 against the spread in the NBA playoffs and 3-6 over/under.

Denver has gone 7-4-1 against the spread; in fact, they are 4-1 against the spread in this series, but that’s not what counts in the standings. Denver is 5-7 over/under. The total is at 216.5. Two of the five games in this series have gone over.

The underdog has covered the spread in the last 11 games between Oklahoma City and Denver in Denver. The Nuggets are also 5-0 in their last five games after a road loss. OKC is a whopping 70-16 straight up as favorites this season.

Thunder at Nuggets Game 6 Preview

We have plenty of data to sift through before making our prediction for Game 6. The average number of points in the five games is 221.6. The average margin of victory is 13.2, but that figure is thrown off by the Thunder’s big Game 2 victory.

OKC has led at halftime in four of the five games, and actually led at halftime in 26 of their last 31 games - Prop bet alert!

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 28.2 points this series to lead the Thunder, but is only 5-22 from three-point range. Nikola Jokic has averaged right at 30 points this series for Denver, but he’s taken 117 shots and has only made 45 percent.

At home, Jokic scores almost three points more than he does on the road (31 to 28). He also shoots threes better at home than he does on the road, 42 percent to 40 percent.

I always view made threes as a big stat to determine the winner of a game, especially in today’s NBA, but Denver has made more threes in the last three games and lost two of them.

Thunder at Nuggets Game 6 Prediction

We’ve learned a lot about the Thunder this series. They are still one of the youngest teams left in the playoffs (Shai is 26, Jalen Williams is 25, Chet Holmgren is 22), and while it has shown at times, the Thunder have also shown great resolve, winning the last two games.

What we have seen in the NBA playoffs is that home court advantage is widely overrated. This is because at this level, games become shooting contests, and spreading out the floor, being unselfish, and getting open looks is the path to success.

There’s the commentary that the Thunder have ‘stopped’ Denver star Nikola Jokic, but I’m not buying it. He scored 44 points in Game 5, but didn’t get much help from his supporting cast. Denver is only rolling seven players out there in this series, and I wonder if they’re getting tired late.

But tonight I don’t see that as a concern. Denver will respond with a good performance. I love the note on how underdogs have covered the last 11 games between these two in Denver. I will take the Nuggets.

The Pick: Denver +5 (-110 at Caesars)