The CJ Cup Byron Nelson expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2025 tournament

In this betting preview:

• Expert picks and predictions
• DraftKings odds to win
• Betting preview
• TPC Craig Ranch course overview

One year ago, we hit an incredible outright when Taylor Pendrith fired a closing round 67 to beat Ben Kohles by one shot in McKinney, Texas. Those who watched the final hole know just how wild a finish it was. THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson has been a bit of a birdie-fest since it moved to TPC Craig Ranch. The average winning score including Pendrith's victory is 25 under par. Finishing on a 552-yard par 5 sets you up for a memorable end, but Ben's blunder around the green holding a one-shot lead was not an ending anyone imagined at that point. Taylor took full advantage and captured the championship, but the reality is this venue needed an upgrade if it was to continue hosting the PGA TOUR.

The Byron Nelson is another one of these long-standing PGA TOUR events that is in dire need of schedule help. Scottie Scheffler is entered, but just two of the top 25 and seven of the top 50 in the OWGR are in Texas to play for $9.9 million. A smooth $1.782 million for first, the fact is elite players have three signature starts and two majors over the next seven weeks! God only knows what will happen to the schedule in 2026, but the demise of this event after 71 years is kind of sad. Don't get me wrong, the Mexico Open has its merits, but a tournament named for such a legendary player should represent more star power.

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CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025 expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Si Woo Kim (+3300 on DraftKings)

Si Woo Kim is always an incredible ball striker. When the putter gets hot for Si Woo, look out for low scores. An eighth-place finish at the RBC Heritage, gaining over three strokes with his flatstick, this is one of those moments where we jump on the Si Woo super coaster. It won’t be a smooth ride, but Kim is an elite player who can separate in this very average field.

Best bet to place in the top Top 40: Henrik Norlander (+137 on DraftKings)

We are looking for approach players who can putt and possess proven results at TPC Craig Ranch. Norlander checks all of those boxes. Certainly not a household name, Norlander is ranked first in this field for approach over the last 24 rounds and top 10 (ninth) with his putter. Can he win, who cares. We’re getting 40 places and a proven ball striker who has three straight top 18 results in his last three starts on TOUR.

Best head-to-head bet: Matt Wallace over Alex Smalley (-110 on bet365)

Smalley has missed four of his last five cuts. The one event he played on the weekend was Corales (T63)! That’s a secondary tournament played parallel to the RBC Heritage. Wallace was twelfth at Corales and finished fourth here last year. Wallace always seems to score on long courses. I’ll take his comp resume (Corales, Grand Reserve, Detroit Golf Club) and putter over Smalley and his recent struggles.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025 betting odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Showing odds shorter than +9000.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025: Betting preview

TPC Craig Ranch has been lengthened by 155 yards. Tournament officials have added yardage to five holes (5, 8, 10, 11, 14). Four of the holes with additional yardage are par 4s and 66 yards were added to the par 5 fifth now making that test 635-yards long! The course was too easy for the TOUR and I'm not sure just adding yards will lower the final score. In three prior Craig Ranch editions, there were 84 bunkers and 13 holes with water in play. Those challenges did not seem to slow anyone down. Even the average cutline was -5.25 under par. More was needed to test the TOUR's second tier. The fairways have been narrowed and there's been the addition of several closely mown chipping areas around the green complexes.

A major renovation is happening after this week, but for now this is it. Vegas set the winning score over/under at -22.5. Not significantly different than the average winning score from the last four years, oddsmakers still believe this is a birdie bonanza and I agree. I'll get into the specific skills needed to win, but the big picture for the Byron Nelson has never really been smaller. These changes have been led by DA Weibring's group. Weibring has also done some work on TPC Deere Run where they host the John Deere Classic. Most birdie-fests beat you over the head with scorable 4s and 5s. The average par 4 has gained eight yards and is now 455 yards in length. The average par 5 jumped 22 yards and those three holes now average 584 yards.

TPC Craig Ranch has some serious yardage, but the reality is length does not pose an issue for these guys. You've got to shrink the targets by making them smaller or firmer. It rained Monday in McKinney, and it is raining today. Conditions look awesome, but all the green tells us they have received plenty of precipitation over the last week to 10 days. The longest par 71 (7,569) they have played all year; the forecast calls for more wet weather throughout the tournament. Each day carries a 25% chance (or better) for rain and temperatures should rest quite nicely in the high 70s each day. The wind looks quite calm for all of the rain in the forecast. The breeze is expected to blow in the 8-12 mph range and starting Thursday out of the south. By Friday it will turn from the northeast and finish out of the southeast on Sunday.

We've seen four editions from the Ranch and two of them have been won by KH Lee. Jason Day won in 2023 and Pendrith last May. The average winner's pre-tournament odds have been +10500. We can look down the betting board this week and that's always exciting. One year ago, we took home a triple digit winner! In fact, three of the four winners have come from +10000 or more territory. Sure, Scottie Scheffler (+280) is in the field, but this is not the best venue for him to use his superpowers and separate. Taylor Pendrith won with his driver and his putter. Certainly, Scheffler can send it off the tee, but we have plenty in the field that can out “putt” him. By beefing up the scorecard it will suit those with shorter odds (lower), but overall, this event comps much more closely to an American Express than it does the 3M Open.

The eventual push to a more difficult course will help the better players differentiate themselves, but for now, the middle tier can still set the standard. Beneath our defending champion Taylor Pendrith at +3000, there are four "favorites" besides Scottie; Sungjae Im, Ben An, Sam Burns, and Jordan Spieth! Far from murderers row you can see why this leaderboard has plenty of room for another triple digit contender. I'm going to repeat the 2024 formula for success and feature a little more length in our card than I did last year. The result should set us up for another massive sweat on Sunday.

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CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025: TPC Louisiana course overview

Grinders need not apply this week. This is a Monday scramble style scoring affair so make sure your pencil has a fresh eraser. No matter how low you go, with soft conditions you will probably need to go a little lower. Each of our outrights has brilliant birdie potential and this strength of field will keep them comfortable. Get ready for a classic shootout as we creep one week closer to Quail Hollow and our next McIlroy major venue!

In a shoot-out, scoring is the number one priority, BoB%, birdies gained, opportunities gained, and quite simply hitting as many GIRs as possible. After all, you are going to need 25+ sub-par scores to take home this trophy. Even if that's not the case due to a couple of tweaks, that scoring strategy will still put you on the path to winning. Any scoring statistic is a cumulative analytic. It requires input from multiple skill sets; for example approach play and putting. When you look across this field for the best pure scorers there is a definitive list. Much like there is for the best iron players or drivers. It just takes multiple skills to be a birdie maker. True they added some difficulty to Craig Ranch, but the forecast has me believing this is the number one priority.

TPC Craig Ranch requires you to average at least five under par for four days. Certain players just cannot keep up and those guys are off our radar. Over one-third of the approach shots at TPC Craig Ranch travel over 200 yards. Long iron play can really separate you from the field. The three winners at Craig Ranch over the past four years gained an average of four strokes on approach. With the reduction in fairway landing area, proximity to the hole and opportunities gained become even more important. I'm far from saying this is an exclusively second shot golf course, but approach was an important factor before and has become even more important now. Especially when you consider the surfaces will be a little more receptive than usual.

The field hit more than the TOUR average of fairways in the first four editions at Craig Ranch. Will pinching the landing areas significantly change that, we shall see. Narrowing the fairways or not, we still need guys who can move it from the tee box. Seven of the 11 par 4s measure over 450 yards, three par 3s stretch over 215 yards, and two of the par 5s are in that 550-560 range which require a great second shot of 225+ to reach in two. Those 12 long approaches get easier when you are closer to the green complex. If I’m playing from the rough, I would also wish to be closer to the target. With the wet conditions and added length, I'm increasing my focus on strokes gained off the tee. Not everyone has Taylor Pendrith’s length and that's a considerable advantage.

The layout at TPC Craig Ranch reminds me of a couple of her sister TPC courses; Scottsdale and Deere Run. PGA West (AMEX), Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson), and Grand Reserve (Puerto Rico) all test the middle tier in a very similar fashion. Aggressive scoring at these venues mirrors what you need to contend and win at the Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch wouldn't be my first choice for a Dallas venue, but we have seen some decent Sundays unfold. The last three editions have been won by a single stroke. Knowing the scoring is tight, Bogey avoidance and a very positive birdie to bogey ratio are important. Scoring-fests generally don't allow you to make a double bogey. You can't lose one stroke let alone two to the field. Scrambling and saving par will play a role over the weekend.

Putting is the second most correlated factor after approach play. The four winners have gained an average of four strokes on the field. They also averaged 26.3 sub-par scores in the year they won. Again, Vegas set the o/u line at 22.5 under par. We require guys to make putts. Only Jason Day gained less than four strokes with his flatstick against the field. That's the blueprint for the shoot-out in Dallas. Generate as many legitimate birdie opportunities as possible by hitting a million GIRs. The greens are bigger than last week (average 6,778 sq/ft), but they are not large by any stretch of the imagination. I write this narrative every year and think Craig Ranch should play harder and it just doesn't. Fact is a 475-yard par 4 is a birdie hole. A three-wood then eight iron for the long hitters and driver seven for the middle of the road guys.

Middle tier talents on TOUR are good at those skills. That's why we have a bunch of outrights down the board to bet this week. Following Sunday, we'll be back to elite events for five of the next seven weeks. I'm going for a long shot or two on our anniversary of a wonderful triple digit win last year!

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 39 outright wins and covers the TGL, LPGA, and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, and Twitter.