As Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez returns to action for the first time in over a year against WBC super middleweight champion Christian Mbilli on Saturday, he faces the questions that have dogged almost all of boxing's great ones as they approach middle age.
They usually centre around "why". Why is he still doing this? Why carry on in such a brutally dangerous trade when he's achieved so much? Why does he think there are new frontiers to conquer? Why risk losing to someone who – with all due respect to the tenacious and impressive Mbilli – he'd have made short work of in his pomp?
Alvarez unquestionably boasts one of the finest careers of boxing's modern era. Additionally, the fact that he has become a bona fide superstar at a time when the sport has shrunk from mainstream view means there is an element of trepidation over what comes next when he hangs up the gloves.
There is no way that Canelo should become one of boxing's sad cautionary tales. We're nowhere near that point. His career has been meticulously planned, to the extent it can be split into four clear blocks. Saturday in Riyadh will give a decent indication of whether there is a fifth or if we're approaching the point where Father Time rings the final bell.
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The Ages of Alvarez: Canelo's four acts as a Mexican boxing idol
1. The prince who was promised
It was a great and irresistible story from the get-go: a prodigious kid from Jalisco who turned pro at 15 and was knocking over men twice his age.
Oscar de la Hoya had once played the part of Hispanic fighting whiz kid, and his Golden Boy Promotions was at its zenith when it welcomed Canelo into the fold. The thick-set, baby-faced kid with a shock of red hair, who punched with bad intentions, was an instant hit when he stopped Jose Miguel Cotto on the Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Shane Mosley undercard in May 2010.
All of those names showed how Alvarez was being expertly positioned by Golden Boy, whose masterclass in promotion and matchmaking had the side effect of Canelo being dogged by fans claiming he was a protected fighter.
Four months later, he beat former Mayweather foe Carlos Baldomir in six rounds, and a shot at a maiden world title arrived in March 2011. Canelo was paired with Matthew Hatton — like Jose Miguel Cotto, an accomplished fighter with a more famous and talented brother — for the tilt at the vacant WBC super welterweight title. This was despite Hatton being a career welterweight and the bout being made at a catchweight of 150 lbs, four pounds below the super welterweight limit. Canelo came in at 151.8 lbs, paid a fine and was allowed to fight for the title anyway, dominating Hatton over 12 one-sided rounds.
A run of five defences, including a wide decision over a faded Mosley, preceded a showdown with undefeated American southpaw Austin Trout. In a bout where some good judges tipped him to lose, Canelo was superb, winning a unanimous decision after he dropped "No Doubt" in the seventh. That was the litmus test, proving he was a worthy foe for the great man.
Mayweather challenged Canelo for the WBC 154-pound title in September 2013, although the bout was made at 152 lbs. It proved to be a sapping stipulation for Alvarez, who, despite some moments of success, found himself on the receiving end of a boxing lesson. The official records show only a majority decision for Mayweather, after CJ Ross came up with an unfathomable 114-114 card.
2. Catchweight king
There was intrigue over Canelo's next move. Mayweather had reduced plenty of fighters to shells of their former selves after taking them to school. A 10th-round stoppage of the all-action Alfredo Angulo, a knife-edge points win over Erislandy Lara, and a three-round blitz against the dangerous-but-vulnerable James Kirkland amounted to an impressive body of rebound work.
The Angulo and Lara bouts took place at 155 lbs — technically middleweight bouts but just one pound over the super welterweight limit. The great Miguel Cotto was persuaded to defend his Ring Magazine middleweight belt, with the WBC strap also up for grabs, at 155 lbs in November 2015. Canelo was brilliant, claiming a competitive but clear points win with the finest performance of his career.
Nevertheless, there remained a sense of an A-side having the deck stacked too heavily in his favor. The spectre of his great rival also loomed.
Gennady Golovkin was laying waste to a parade of fully fledged middleweights with his otherworldly power, while Canelo ironed out a weight-jumping Amir Khan at his newly favoured 155 limit, before dipping down to 154 to stop Liam Smith with body shots and win the WBO super welterweight title.
Alvarez's disregard for traditional weight classes continued when he jumped to 164 pounds to face Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in an all-Mexican superfight. Both men had faced questions over their true authenticity, but there was no doubt who emerged as the real deal, as Canelo completely dominated all 12 sessions.
There could also no longer be legitimate claims that Canelo was not comfortable at the middleweight limit. Golovkin came into the ring for a face-off after Chavez was vanquished. This thing was on.
3. Pound-for-pound king
The defining stretch of Canelo's career began with skepticism, invited more and ended with him ticking every box. His first fight with Golovkin in September 2017 was everything fans hoped for, with the younger man proving he could go blow for blow with the most ferocious middleweight operator since Marvin Hagler.
Still, no one actually thought he won. Well, apart from Adelaide Byrd, who returned a 118-110 card that would have made Canelo's parents blush. Dave Moretti saw it 115-113 in Golovkin's favour and Don Trella scored it 114-114 even – another ludicrous card, but there were degrees to this sort of thing, as Byrd showed.
Canelo had retained his undefeated record but was arguably denied some of the credit he was due – and would have received in a gallant defeat – because the judges had robbed Golovkin of a crowning victory. The Mexican's stock fell further when the May 2018 rematch was delayed after he tested positive for the banned substance clenbuterol. Canelo and his team attributed this to the consumption of contaminated meat and he was handed a six-month ban on the basis of this mitigation.
That ban expired, handily enough, in time for Mexican Independence Day weekend of 2018. Golovkin vs. Canelo II arguably surpassed the first bout in terms of quality and drama. It was a closer affair that could conceivably have gone either way. Canelo prevailed by a wafer-thin majority decision – 115-113 twice, with the other card 114-114. It launched his imperial period.
It started with more weight surfing as he dipped his toe in super middleweight waters, demolishing overmatched Briton Rocky Fielding to win the WBA 'regular' title. Daniel Jacobs then pushed Canelo over 12 competitive middleweight rounds before he leapt to light heavyweight and iced the feared Sergey Kovalev in the penultimate session. Kovalev was compromised by a quick turnaround from his gruelling WBO title defense against Anthony Yarde just 10 weeks earlier, but was compelled by a handy payday.
Kovalev's diminished state was further fuel for Canelo's remaining detractors. Back down at super middleweight, he elected to give them nothing. Alvarez became undisputed champion at 168 pounds with victories over champions Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant. Smith, Saunders and Plant had a combined record of 78-0 before entering the ring with Canelo.
Smith barely won a round. Saunders was very competitive before Canelo broke his face in round eight at AT&T Stadium. He has not boxed again. Plant had his moments but was dropped twice and stopped in round 11. It was a brilliant run to stand up in any era, and it came in a particularly complicated one. It should never be forgotten that, amid the uncertainties and fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, Canelo kept the lights on for big-time boxing, pretty much single-handedly.
With 168 pounds emphatically cleaned out, it was back to light heavyweight for another Russian. Dmitry Bivol didn't punch anywhere near as hard as Kovalev, so what was there to worry about?
4. The Mayweather method
Canelo was a heavy favourite heading into his May 2022 challenge for Bivol's WBA light heavyweight title, but he lost for the first time since falling short against Mayweather almost a decade earlier. Bivol was sensational; too much skill and volume from too many angles. The pot-shotting style Canelo had refined at super middleweight had no answer and he lost a unanimous decision. Three cards of 115-113 were closer than they had any right to be.
Losing to the majestic Bivol did not deprive Canelo of his aura, but it persuaded him to misplace his sense of quest. A trilogy fight with Golovkin was a shadow of their first two meetings, with GGG not the same fighter at super middleweight. He opted to retire after losing a decision over which there was, finally, no dispute at all.
Golovkin III was the first of six consecutive fights in Canelo's now traditional May and September slots, the PPV monster weekends he inherited from Mayweather. He won all six via unanimous decision and there was little to no doubt that he would. Oh, and no one talk about David Benavidez. It felt similar to Mayweather's late-career Showtime contract, where he earned big bucks for entertaining the likes of Robert Guerrero and Andre Berto for 36 minutes of limited jeopardy.
The fear this weekend is that he runs out of road against Mbilli and loses to a fighter he would never have previously lost to. That arguably already happened last year. Terence Crawford is a future Hall of Famer and will go down as an all-time great. But it's highly unlikely he'd have vaulted the weight division to outbox a prime Canelo as he did.
That's the big target for Alvarez. If he beats Mbilli handily, he can claim to be a new man with his fixed elbow. Things would be different against 'Bud' in a rematch and the now-retired American would have absurd sacks of cash dangled in his direction to make it happen.
Bivol defends his light heavyweight title against Callum Smith before the end of this year. A trilogy bout with Artur Beterbiev is the most likely outcome if that is a success, but Canelo will also watch those developments with interest. Bivol is also into his late-career surgeries era and Canelo might fancy himself as the less shopworn, should they meet again.
Correcting the record of those two losses are noble enough aims (Floyd's flirting with a comeback too… no, stop it). But as of now, Crawford is retired and Bivol has other priorities. Canelo has been too brilliant for the prospect of him marking time and cashing in to diminishing returns not to feel a little sad. Produce some of the old magic against Mbilli, though, and we'll be all in. We want to witness the romance of the great ones turning back the clock. We're all as bad as each other. Canelo could ask, after two decades of emphatic answers with his fists, why on earth he should be any different.
