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(Bloomberg) — Thailand’s economy is expected to perform better than expected this year as the exports sector proves resilient to the impact of higher US tariffs.
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The Finance Ministry raised its 2025 economic growth forecast to 2.4% from the 2.2% predicted earlier, Fiscal Policy Office Director-General Vinit Visessuvanapoom said at a news briefing on Thursday.
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Export growth this year is projected at 10%, a sizable revision from the 5.5% set previously. The government’s stimulus measures should also support consumption.
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“It is possible that fourth quarter GDP growth will be higher than 1% versus the 0.3% estimated earlier,” Visessuvanapoom said, citing the stimulus’ impact.
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The optimism comes as Thailand’s exports rose the most in more than three years in September, beating economists’ estimates and shrugging off tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
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Sales in key export markets have stayed strong, while similar levies across Southeast Asia have likely retained the nation’s export edge. Some countries like Thailand and Vietnam are also benefitting from shifting supply chains away from China.
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On top of that, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s government kickstarted its $1.36 billion program that would help subsidize the costs of some food, goods and services.
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It aims to revive spending which has been held back by high levels of household debt and weak income growth. Local sentiment is also gloomy as Thais go into mourning over the death of the nation’s Queen Mother Sirikit.
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The ministry expects consumer prices to contract 0.2% year-on-year in 2025 due to lower oil prices and the government’s energy subsidies. It earlier estimated inflation of 0.4%.
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The government had already raised its 2025 growth forecast in July to 2.2% from 2.1%, supported by better-than-expected manufacturing, exports and consumption. However, the Bank of Thailand, which earlier this month unexpectedly left its key interest rate unchanged, trimmed its growth outlook to 2.2% from 2.3%.
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