Texans vs. Chargers prediction: NFL Saturday picks, best bets, player props

The Houston Texans head to Los Angeles for a matchup between AFC playoff contenders.

Two of the league’s best defenses will be heavily featured on Saturday, as both teams rank in the top 10 in yards per play allowed.

The total for Saturday’s contest comes in at a low 39.5 total points, while Los Angeles is favored by 1.5 points at home.

As we know, though, in Los Angeles, the Chargers have no real home-field advantage, so you’re best off looking at this as a neutral field more than anything.

The Chargers will undoubtedly have a tough time keeping Justin Herbert upright in this matchup, given he’ll been without his top tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, while facing a ferocious pass rush.

Texans vs. Chargers prediction

Herbert has taken the most hits of any quarterback in the league with 72.

I don’t expect that to get any better this week, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter breathing down his neck all afternoon.

CJ Stroud leads the Texans for a big Saturday game. Getty Images

Herbert has also been pressured on 29.2 percent of his dropbacks, again the worst figure in the NFL.

This could be a banner day for the Texans’ pass rush, which is why I suspect that Herbert will have a limited week production-wise and running back Omarion Hampton gets a massive workload instead.

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My model has this score at 19.3-19 in favor of the Chargers. It’s a coin-flip matchup and I’m looking to back the Under 39.5, as well as some player prop Unders in a defense-first game.

Bet on Under 240.5 passing + rushing yards for Stroud.

He has crossed this number twice in his last five games, and given the matchup, Stroud should really be handing off more than he’s dropping back.

THE PLAYS: Under 39.5 total points (-110) | CJ Stroud Under 240.5 passing + rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.