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Aaron Judge of Team USA.
AP
Team USA’s journey to the 2026 World Baseball Classic championship has been uneven.
The Stars and Stripes needed help to just qualify for the knockout rounds after losing to Italy in Pool Play, and then had to scrap their way past Canada in the quarterfinals.
A 2-1 win over the Dominican Republic was nervy, and the Americans certainly benefited from a couple of could-go-either-way calls in crucial moments.
If you take the glass-half-empty approach, you’d argue that it’s been an uninspiring showing from Team USA even though they’re playing for the trophy on Tuesday night.
The more positive spin would be to suggest that the Americans are saving their best for last.
The oddsmakers seem to be leaning toward the latter, as the Americans are -265 favorites to beat Venezuela in Tuesday’s grand finale.
World Baseball Classic: Team USA vs. Venezuela odds, prediction
This tilt is supposed to feel like a Game 7 of a World Series, so it is interesting that neither side is bringing their best pitcher to the bump on Tuesday night.
Nolan McLean, the impressive rookie for the Mets, will get the nod for the Americans, while veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez will start for La Vinotinto.
Both McLean and Rodriguez have already pitched in this tournament, neither of them particularly well.
Ronald Acuna and Venezuela are looking for their first World Baseball Classic title. Getty ImagesMcLean surrendered three runs in three innings in the USA’s infamous loss to Italy, while Rodriguez was tagged for three runs and two homers in 2 2/3 innings against the Dominican Republic.
And while Rodriguez is the more experienced hurler, he has not been sharp in the past two seasons, something that does not bode well when going up against one of the most talented lineups ever assembled.
Even more concerning is the fact that Venezuela will be counting on the 32-year-old to handle a heavy workload after La Vinotinto’s bullpen racked up 7 2/3 scoreless innings against Italy on Monday night.
There are some great relievers available to the Venezuelans despite Monday’s patch-it-together victory, but the day off is a boon for the Americans.
McLean’s last outing is cause for concern, but he shouldn’t have to be flawless for Team USA to get this win. The offense has had fits and starts, but it is in a great position to do some serious damage against a pitcher who has an ERA over 5.00 since he joined the Arizona Diamondbacks before the 2024 season.
Our first bet for Tuesday night will be on the Americans to clear the -1.5 runline.
As for a wager with more upside, it’s worth taking a hard look at the MVP market on Kalshi.
Aaron Judge is the favorite, but he was quiet against the Dominican Republic, which means that the winner of this award will come down to the player who has the biggest impact Tuesday night.
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I’ve landed on Kyle Schwarber (7 percent, or 15/1) as my pick for the best value on the board.
The Phillies’ slugger has had a strong tournament to this point, posting a 1.000 OPS and collecting eight hits, including one home run, in 22 at-bats. While he won’t get the chance to make a difference with his glove like Judge or Roman Anthony, Schwarber has a cushy gig with the bat.
He’ll bat behind Judge, which means if the Venezuelans pitch around No. 99, Schwarber will be there with a chance to make them pay.
The Play: Team USA -1.5 (-128, FanDuel) | Kyle Schwarber to be named MVP (15/1, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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