Starmer Risks a Migration Backlash, But This Time From the Left

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Data this week from analytics company Gallup found the UK leads any other county in terms of its opposition to more immigration, with 21% of Britons naming it as their top concern. Only six other countries have at least one in 10 adults citing it as the foremost issue in their minds.

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Without its changes, the Home Office is also concerned that the UK’s welfare bill could balloon. Successfully claiming ILR means a migrant has access to a wider range of benefits and, according to the government’s calculations, more than 2 million could be eligible for ILR by 2030 due to the high number of migrants who entered the country to fill job vacancies following the pandemic and Brexit.

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But Vaughan thinks the government is making a political error by penalizing legal, settled migrants. He believes most voters want to see a reduction in asylum-seekers who cross the English Channel in small boats, yet are wary about changing the rules for people already here.

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“It’s making what I believe is the political error of accepting the premise of the right, accepting the premise for their argument,” he said. His concerns are shared not only on the Labour left, but also among some centrist MPs.

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‘We’ve invested in this country’

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The Institute for Public Policy Research, a think-tank that holds influence with Labour, estimates that around 1.35 million people already on the way to settled status could wait years longer before being accepted as British residents.

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The government has signaled it would like to implement its reforms to the residency system by April. For Gozde Buyukakincak, who came to the UK with her husband and two children on a visa for Turkish professionals, that would be just weeks before she’s able to claim ILR.

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“We invested all our money and time in this country,” she said. Her children, aged eight and 11, have been in the UK for as long as they remember. 

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“The children hear the conversations between us at home and they ask, ‘Mum, are we going back to Turkey?’ They cry and say, ‘I don’t want to leave my friends, I don’t want to leave our school, our home,’” she said. “Why do they have to be subjected to this psychological pressure for months?”

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Natia Kutashvili fled Georgia to the UK as a refugee with her three small children in 2015, after her family faced persecution due to her husband’s pro-Ukraine political affiliations. Due to several court delays on the UK’s part during the Covid pandemic, she didn’t receive refugee status until 2023, and she would have been due to be able to claim ILR in 2028. 

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Under the new rules, as a refugee, she’s now looking at a 20-year baseline wait — though this may be reduced if she switches to a separate work and study protection route, the details of which are still unclear.

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“My government punished us because my husband was involved in the Ukraine war,” she said. “And we’re being punished for coming here. It’s psychological as well because our brains never rested.”

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The government, which was elected on a promise to boost economic growth, has argued its immigration reforms won’t damage that goal. People earning more than £50,000 ($68,248) will see the timeline remain at five years, and those earning over £125,000 will see it shortened to three years.

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But that won’t help Gozde, despite her working in law and her husband in medicine, generally high-paying sectors. He’s currently earning under the threshold while studying for equivalence exams that would allow him to work as a National Health Service doctor.

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“If they change the rules retrospectively, we’ll consider leaving,” she said.

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