Sports prediction market appears to spoil AL MVP winner ahead of announcement

The winner of the 2025 American League MVP award will be announced at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday night, but the markets suggest it is a foregone conclusion.

According to Kalshi, the flagship prediction market in the United States, Aaron Judge has a 94 percent chance of winning the award, putting him well ahead of Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, who is sitting at seven percent. The odds that Judge and Raleigh are named co-MVPs are currently listed at six percent.

Nearly $2.4 million has been traded on this market since it opened, with Judge accruing a massive lead over the Mariners catcher down the stretch.

There was a point in September when Raleigh nudged ahead of No. 99 as the AL MVP favorite, but that appears to be a thing of the past.

Kalshi’s AL MVP market as of 11:15 a.m. on Wednesday.

The other finalist for the award, Jose Ramirez, has a 1 percent chance of winning the award.

Kalshi is not a traditional sportsbook. Instead, it allows users to predict an outcome of an event with the pricing based on the amount of money wagered on either side. The more money that pours in on an option, the shorter the price gets.

However, you can convert those numbers into betting odds by using implied probability.

For instance, Judge’s 94-percent chance of winning AL MVP would roughly translate to -1560 in more traditional betting terminology.

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Judge slashed .331/.457/.688 with 53 home runs and 114 RBIs in 152 games with the Yankees in 2025. His 10.1 WAR paced the Major Leagues, as did his 204 wRC+. The 33-year-old was named AL MVP in 2024 and 2022.

Seattle’s Cal Raleigh led the Majors with 60 home runs in 2025. AP

Raleigh led the circuit with 60 home runs, becoming the first catcher ever to hit that mark. Raleigh’s 7-percent chance of being named AL MVP roughly translates to +1330 in American betting odds.

The last catcher to win AL MVP was Minnesota’s Joe Mauer in 2009.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.