South African Reform Drive Loses Steam as Rail, Ports Lag

The Port of Cape Town, operated by Transnet National Ports Authority. Photo by Dwayne Senior /Photographer: Photographer: Dway

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(Bloomberg) — South Africa’s reform drive is losing steam as delays to rail and port overhauls and private-sector participation weigh on momentum.

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The reform completion gauge rose to 71.75 in the first quarter, up 27% from a March 2024 baseline, but quarterly momentum eased to 0.9% from 2% previously, Business Leadership South Africa said in a report published Thursday. Freight logistics fell 4% — the sharpest decline of the quarter — while governance stalled.

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Reforms are critical to reviving an economy that has underperformed for more than a decade and now faces fresh risks from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to the Iran war, which are driving up shipping, energy and food costs.

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South Africa’s reform program has now been tracked for eight quarters and, while the overall trajectory remains positive, it has been set back by freight logistics, BLSA Chief Executive Officer Busisiwe Mavuso said. 

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The framework architecture at this stage of freight rail and port utility Transnet SOC Ltd.’s unbundling leaves it as both referee and player just as the sector opens to private participation, the business lobby group said. 

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Procurement design is also under scrutiny for shifting disproportionate risk onto investors and deepening conflict-of-interest concerns, it added.

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Further, the institutional framework needed to make projects bankable — including clear regulation and a capacitated private-sector participation unit — continues to lag, according the report. The Network Statement, a blueprint for private sector participation which is meant to address concerns raised by operators and financiers, has missed its February deadline, while the National Rail Bill has yet to be scheduled for parliament, BLSA said. 

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The Draft Rail Master Plan was only published on Thursday. 

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Other components of the index including criminal justice and electricity rose. The criminal justice index climbed to 85.77 from 84.05, driven by improved Financial Intelligence Centre capacity, while the electricity score rose to 69.05 from 67.63 on plans for an independent transmission system operator to own grid assets rather than Eskom SOC Ltd.

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Developed with research firm Krutham, the gauge tracks 245 reforms and partly assesses the work of Operation Vulindlela, a unit set up by President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2020 to drive reforms of the nation’s network industries.

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In a separate update, the National Treasury said Wednesday that Operation Vulindlela was progressing well, with 67% of reforms on track and 7% completed.

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