Shock Carlos Alcaraz exit blows year-end World No. 1 battle wide open: How Jannik Sinner can overtake Spaniard with Paris Masters & ATP Finals results

Carlos Alcaraz arrived at the 2025 Paris Masters having won eight titles so far this season. Shockingly though, the reigning World No. 1 was ousted in his opening match at the prestigious ATP Masters 1000 hardcourt tournament in the French capital; a second-round clash against Cameron Norrie. Now, Jannik Sinner has the chance to overtake the Spaniard and finish as the year-end No. 1.

Alcaraz dethroned the Italian at the summit of the ATP Tour's singles rankings by defeating the latter in the final of this year's US Open. While results since then have been positive for both players, the Spaniard finishing the year on top seemed inevitable. Things have suddenly changed now that the 22-year-old's Paris Masters campaign was put to the sword by Norrie.

However, for Jannik Sinner to pip Carlos Alcaraz for the year-end No. 1 ranking, one of four scenarios needs to become a reality. If the World No. 2 wins the Paris Masters, he would still need to clinch the ATP Finals title and need certain other things to work out in his favor.

For instance, if Sinner remains undefeated throughout his ATP Finals campaign with Alcaraz losing a Round Robin match and unable to reach the final, the Italian would finish 2025 at the summit. In another scenario, Sinner can become the year-end No. 1 if he wins the ATP Finals title losing one Round Robin match and Alcaraz manages to claim just one victory.

In yet another scenario, Sinner could finish as the year-end No. 1 even if he loses two Round Robin matches in Turin but manages to ultimately bag the title with Alcaraz going winless. The Italian, provided he finishes as runner-up in Paris, can still make it if he triumphs in Turin undefeated and Alcaraz goes winless.

In any case, Sinner must at least reach the final in Paris and then win the title in Turin if he is to have any chance at all to get the year-end No. 1 ranking in 2025.

Jannik Sinner had conceded defeat in year-end No. 1 race with Carlos Alcaraz just a few days ago

Jannik Sinner during a press conference at the 2025 Rolex Masters (Source: Getty)

Before heading to the French capital for the 2025 Paris Masters, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz were both in action at the Six Kings Slam exhibition event in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Here, the Italian reigned supreme after beating the Spaniard in the final.

Later, at a press conference, he was asked about what he felt about his chances of ending the year as the World No. 1. Claiming that it would be an "impossible" task to overtake Carlos Alcaraz, the four-time Major champion said:

"For me, the end of the year is very important. I’m very lucky because the ATP Finals are in Italy and this gives me a lot of energy with my home people. This year, it’s going to be impossible (to finish as the year-end No. 1)."

Jannik Sinner is set to begin his own Paris Masters campaign with a second-round encounter against Zizou Bergs.

Edited by Sudipto Pati