Shipments from China to drop by 35% next week due to Trump tariffs, Port of LA chief warns

Shipments from China to the West Coast are poised to plunge by as much as 35% as President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs prompt major American retailers to slash import orders, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles said Tuesday.

Gene Seroka, who runs the nation’s largest port by container volume and cargo value, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday that he expects a dramatic decline in incoming cargo volume next week, with projections showing a drop of more than a third compared to the same period in 2024.

“According to our own port optimizer, which measures the loadings in Asia, we’ll be down just a little bit over 35% next week compared to last year. And it’s a precipitous drop in volume with a number of major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs,” Seroka said.

Cranes unload cargo shipping containers from a Yang Ming container ship at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, Calif. on April 15. AFP via Getty Images

Shipments from China currently account for about 45% of the Port of LA’s business.

However, some transport companies are seeking to offset losses by picking up goods at other points in Southeast Asia, Seroka noted.

“Realistically speaking, until some accord or framework can be reached with China, the volume coming out of there — save a couple of different commodities — will be very light at best,” he added.

The port is also bracing for a major pullback in shipping activity overall.

Seroka said roughly a quarter of the usual number of arriving ships is expected to be canceled in May.

The slowdown comes as the latest escalation in the US-China trade conflict begins to bite.

Trump announced a sweeping tariff hike on Chinese goods on April 2, triggering retaliatory measures from Beijing.

Both countries have now imposed tariffs of more than 100% on many imports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the situation “unsustainable.”

So far, however, there have been no signs of meaningful negotiations to de-escalate the dispute.

Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports threaten to bring about a recession, according to analysts. AP

Shipping data had already shown early indications of slowing trade flows from China to the US, raising alarms among economists.

Apollo Global Management’s chief economist, Torsten Slok, recently outlined a scenario in which declining imports could lead to layoffs in transportation and retail sectors, dwindling inventories, and potentially a recession later this summer.

For now, US retailers are somewhat insulated, thanks to inventory stockpiling ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement.

Seroka estimated that companies have about five to seven weeks of full inventories remaining before shortages start to materialize.

“I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours,” Seroka said.

“So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on the additional costs in place. And for that one blue shirt that’s still left, you’ll see a price hike.”

As uncertainty clouds the outlook for trade, Wall Street is closely watching the potential ripple effects.

Economists warn that prolonged disruption in supply chains could deepen economic challenges in the months ahead.