Saints should be concerned about Travis Etienne signing for 10% reason

The New Orleans Saints, in their effort to surround Tyler Shough with the best talent possible entering his second season, made two major free agent moves.

David Edwards, a former Buffalo Bills offensive guard, signed a deal to become the Saints' new left guard. That was a solid signing, but the more interesting move was the addition of Travis Etienne Jr. to the running back room

This is a fun move for the Saints, but according to ESPN's Bill Barnwell's findings on free-agent success rate, the Saints and their fans should be concerned about how well this Etienne signing will go.

Saints should be concerned about Travis Etienne signing

Barnwell found in a study on free-agent signings from 2013 through 2022 that, while using a small sample size, only 10% of running back free agent signings can be classified as a successful addition.

"This is a particularly brutal performance for running backs, but it's also a product of timing," Barnwell writes. "... Since 2022, we've seen some very successful free agent signings at running back, most notably when Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry changed teams in 2024."

History is not on the Saints' side when it comes to the Etienne signing turning into a successful one. While some recent signings have been good, the history of the position signing deals in free agency doesn't bode well.

More: Saints get negative feedback on $52M Travis Etienne addition from ESPN

Part of what makes this even more concerning is that, compared to Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, two incredibly talented running backs, Etienne is just a good running back.

He's not a bad player by any means, but he doesn't bring the superstar potential that Barkley and Henry showed before they signed their free agent deals.

Barnwell found that free agent running backs, from 2013 through 2022, had only a 10% success rate, by far the worst in the NFL during that time.

This deal is a risky one for the Saints, and history, at least during the 10-year period Barnwell analyzed, doesn't bode well for the Saints.

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• The Marshon Lattimore trade has aged incredibly well for Saints
• Saints are predicted to draft Sonny Styles eighth overall
• Saints to sign David Edwards away from Bill on $61 million contract
• Travis Etienne Jr. agrees to Saints deal leaving Jaguars behind
• Alvin Kamara might retire if trade rumors with Saints come true