Russian Threat Likely to Endure After Putin, Sweden Says

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(Bloomberg) — The Russian regime is likely to remain a threat to its neighbors well after President Vladimir Putin’s time in office ends, the head of Sweden’s military intelligence agency said.

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“We don’t see this crisis as a temporary one; Russia has chosen its path, and there is no way back,” Thomas Nilsson said in an interview. “We are in a strategic confrontation that is deep, structural and enduring — we can’t wish that away,” he added, speaking on board a Swedish military vessel moored at the Baltic Sea island of Gotland. 

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The comments suggest NATO’s newest member holds a particularly bleak view of future relations with Russia, two years after joining the military alliance. The Nordic state hosted NATO foreign ministers last month, urging more support for Ukraine and more sanctions to strangle Moscow’s energy revenue.  

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Russia’s economy continues to struggle and officials are manipulating statistics to mask the effects of four years of war on growth and inflation, Nilsson said. This week, Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil refineries, leading to fuel shortages and miles-long queues at gas stations. Russia’s advances on the battlefield also appear to have ground to a halt. 

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Despite this, Sweden sees nothing in the near term suggesting a threat to regime stability, Nilsson said.

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“Political opposition has effectively been eliminated — through exile, imprisonment, or, in the worst cases, assassination,” he said. “There is no one capable of channeling public dissatisfaction into a political alternative.”

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Surveys also suggest there is genuine support among parts of the Russian population, not necessarily for the war itself, but for Russia’s ambitions “as a great power,” the spy chief said. “We don’t expect any dramatic change.”

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Nordic national broadcasters recently reported on satellite imagery suggesting Moscow is building out its military presence close to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s eastern edge. Russian authorities said the infrastructure was “of defensive character,” Sweden’s SVT reported.

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Nilsson said Russia plans to establish larger force structures “from northern Finland all the way down,” but added that “so far these are mainly just plans” as Moscow continues to prioritize the war in Ukraine. 

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“Our assessment is that once Russia regains the necessary resources and capacity, it will try to carry out these plans,” he said.

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Putin has ruled Russia for more than 26 years and his current term expires in 2030. He’s eligible to run for another six-year term, which would end when Putin was 83. 

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While the Russian leader has not yet indicated whether he intends to stay in office, he has shown no sign of preparing a successor.

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Putin has repeatedly criticized the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and warned that Moscow would deploy forces in retaliation.

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“Both Finland and Sweden have lost the advantages of their neutral status,” Putin said in October at the annual Valdai Club meeting in Russia’s Sochi. “Previously, we had no military presence in that region of Russia. Now we will.”

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—With assistance from Tony Halpin.

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