Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Changed Europe Forever. Here’s How

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Those efforts to deter Putin continued up to the last minute, with a NATO-Russia council called for Jan. 21, 2022. The Russians turned up with maps on which NATO member states were not marked as such. Those present wondered whether it was a mistake or a deliberate attempt to destabilize, Lungescu said. The answer came the following month.  

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She sees two main lessons: Despite being the world’s biggest country in territorial terms, Russia “remains an imperial expansive project.” The second: “Russia is not invincible; the Ukrainians have shown that.”

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Ukraine has also shown the changed nature of modern warfare, reminding militaries of the need for tanks and artillery before pioneering the use of cheap first-person vision, or FPV, drones to dominate the battlefield. In today’s drone wars, the front line is a “kill zone” patrolled from above, while combat units are supplied by remotely operated tracked vehicles that take away the dead and injured. 

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Ukraine has become a real-time testing ground for new military technologies, an increasing number of which are now domestically produced, while European defense companies like KNDS NV, Leonardo SpA, and Diehl BGT Defence GmbH can’t supply their products fast enough. 

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Where resources were once scarce and government orders small, “now the challenges are about how fast and massive your production is,” said Camille Grand, secretary general of ASD, the European defense industry’s main trade association and a former NATO assistant secretary general.

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NATO has refocused on its founding remit of collective defense, he said, even as the US casts doubt on its Article 5 commitments and makes clear that Europe is responsible for its own security.  

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“If we believe that Europe and NATO could be tested by Russia in a post-ceasefire Ukraine, the message from Washington to Europeans is: `You are the first respondents ,’” said Grand. “Europeans have to deliver the cavalry.”

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A foretaste came early in 2025, when the US withheld weaponry and intelligence after the infamous Oval Office clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Washington later relented, though Europe is now paying for US equipment delivered to Kyiv.   

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Trump’s subsequent determination to impose a peace deal and rehabilitate Russia, as codified in his administration’s eye-popping National Security Strategy, looks to many in Europe like a permanent breach of the transatlantic bond.     

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“What we once called the normative West no longer exists in this form,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in December — a significant statement for someone who grew up under the US security umbrella that formed the bulwark against the Soviet bloc. It speaks to the depth of the rupture, but also points to the paradox of Germany’s role as perhaps Europe’s best hope of a sovereign future. 

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While the world’s No. 3 economy, Germany’s export-oriented, auto industry-heavy economic model has been shown to be uncompetitive, overly beholden to China, and vulnerable in an age of a receding multilateral order. Merz and his coalition are strong on support for Ukraine but weak domestically: unpopular, and trailing the far-right nationalist — and Kremlin-friendly — Alternative for Germany party in some polls. 

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For all the wobbles, Berlin’s determination to rearm is real: Hardly a day goes by without a new military order announced by the government or its industry partners. Lawmakers approved a record number of arms contracts under a €50 billion spending splurge in December. Voluntary military service is returning, with the prospect of conscription if enough young people don’t fill the ranks. Rheinmetall AG’s share price has soared more than 1,600% in the past four years.