Rising Polar Vortex Threat for US, Asia and Europe Signals Higher Winter Energy Bills

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(Bloomberg) — The odds of extreme cold this winter in the US, Asia and parts of Europe are climbing, threatening to boost energy bills for consumers already grappling with high costs and economic uncertainty.

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With the season’s start just weeks away, meteorologists see many of the same conditions that led to one of the warmest winters on record last year for the Northern Hemisphere. But there’s one key difference: Signs are emerging that the polar vortex, the girdle of winds around the Arctic, could weaken and allow frigid air to spill southward. 

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A deep freeze would likely mean higher prices for power and natural gas, adding to the cost burden for ratepayers as inflation remains stubbornly high and major economies show signs of persistent weakness. In the US, a jump in power demand from data centers and artificial intelligence has sent wholesale electricity costs soaring — an increase that’s being passed on to consumers.

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Winter is the most turbulent time of year for weather, said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. The fluctuating conditions have major consequences for a wide variety of markets and industries, from energy and transportation to retail. The Northern Hemisphere’s worst weather also arrives with a series of immovable deadlines, including Christmas and Lunar New Year, when planes, people and cargo need to arrive on time.

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“Further into December, keep an eye on the polar vortex,” said Dan Hart, a meteorologist at London-based OpenWeather Ltd. 

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Of course, there’s no guarantee that temperatures will plunge early enough in the winter to have a significant impact on energy demand. Last year, the polar vortex didn’t break apart until March.

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But now, a set of winds called the quasi-biennial oscillation is blowing to the east. That movement may spark a phenomenon known as sudden stratospheric warming — a rapid, dramatic rise in temperature in a layer of the atmosphere — that ultimately leads to a weakening of  the polar vortex, according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research, leading to weakening of the polar vortex. If sudden stratospheric warming occurs earlier than it did last year, “that would have important implications for the overall winter weather,” Cohen said.

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US Chill

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For the US, winter will likely come in a bit cooler than normal and definitely colder than last year, said Matt Rogers, president of commercial forecaster Commodity Weather Group. 

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The northern tier of the country from the Pacific Northwest to central New England will likely be cooler than average, with the highest chance of below-normal temperatures in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes, CWG predicts. The South will probably get near-normal or slightly warmer-than-average temperatures, including Texas, which saw its power grid collapse in 2021 when a breakdown in the polar vortex unleashed a winter storm that killed more than 200 people.