Rice vs. Texas State prediction: Odds, picks, opt-outs and best bet for Armed Forces Bowl

Friday’s four-game slate feels like an appropriate way to bring Bowl Season to a close.

There are plenty of peculiar matchups, opt-outs and motivational factors to consider for each contest, but none project to be funkier than the Armed Forces Bowl between Rice and Texas State.

Neither one of these teams played much defense in 2025 and they both loved to run the ball, but the similarities really end there.

The oddsmakers are telling us to expect the Bobcats to roll the Owls, but the stylistic matchup on offer here could take us in several different directions, and that’s what bowl season is all about.

Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State odds, prediction

Rice’s adoption of the triple-option offense this season was a success.

That may sound hyperbolic to say about a team that finished 5-7, but remember that this program smashed the reset button last offseason after hitting the five-win mark just twice in the previous nine campaigns.

This is Year 1 of this bold new experiment, which is intended to level the playing field, as Rice just can’t compete with the recruiting power of other schools in the region.

While Rice wants to grind games out with a plodding offense meant to keep its inept defense off the field, Texas State wants to put the pedal to the metal.

The Bobcats also lean into the run quite a bit, but they’re a high-tempo offense that won’t like the glacial pace that the Owls prefer.

Rice will be without starting quarterback Chase Jenkins, but he failed to really set the world on fire, and there’s certainly a chance that one of the reserves could wind up being an upgrade. 

Texas state coach G.J. Kinne. Getty Images

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Texas State is the more talented side, even if Jenkins was in the fold, but this handicap is more about the stylistic matchup.

The clock will be moving all night, and it’s always a good idea to give the underdog a hard look in a clash between two run-heavy offenses separated by a large spread.

The Play: Rice +16 (-110, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.