Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Copa del Rey match

Following a damaging El Clasico defeat in the Supercopa de Espana final, Real Madrid look to refocus their efforts this season with a Copa del Rey Round of 16 clash against Celta Vigo on Thursday.

Madrid were pummeled 5-2 by Barcelona on the weekend, their second Clasico humbling of the season. The result was a dose of reality for Los Blancos who must now collect themselves and press on in domestic and European competition.

First up on the redemption tour is a knockout game against Celta Vigo, who troubled Madrid greatly back in their October league meeting. The 12th-placed La Liga side put up 1.82xG to Madrid's 0.74, but fell 2-1 on a 66th-minute winner by Vinicius Jr.

Real Madrid won the Copa del Rey back in 2023 – their first success the competition for nine years – while Celta Vigo have made three finals in their history without lifting the trophy.

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Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (-300 on BetMGM)
• Score prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo have given Real Madrid troubles in the past, but can't seem to get over the hump. They have been beaten by Los Blancos in nine straight meetings dating back to a 2-2 draw in February of 2020.

Real Madrid will have to outscore opponents to collect points and victories moving forward, as their back line is a mess at the moment, but will have no problem doing so against the league's third-worst goalkeeper in Vicente Guaita, whose post-shot expected goal numbers are truly horrific.

An angry Real Madrid are not a team Celta Vigo will enjoy playing against.

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo match facts

• Date: Thursday, January 16, 2025
• Kickoff Time: 9:30 p.m. local (3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT)
• Location: Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
• Referee: Jose Luis Munuera Montero
• Last meeting: Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid (Oct. 19, 2024 | La Liga)

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo best bet

• Pick: Both teams to score — Yes
• Odds: -145 (BetMGM)

In Real Madrid matches for the rest of the season, it doesn't matter who they are playing — if the BTTS line is better than 2/3, we will hammer it. Carlo Ancelotti has embraced chaos ball this season amidst his defensive injuries and squad frailties, and it has an effect on both ends of the pitch.

Celta Vigo managed a very strong output in front of goal last time these teams met, scoring once while out-shooting Real Madrid 13-10 and generating a whopping four "big chances."

The clean sheets Madrid have kept this season have largely been thanks to opposition misfires rather than their own defensive triumphs. Such is the case for the multitude of times Celta Vigo failed to score against Madrid in recent games as well, as they went three straight without a goal across 2023 and 2024 despite combining for 33 shots worth 2.99 xG. Back Madrid to have to outscore their opposition each week.

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo prop bet

• Pick: Vinicius Jr. anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +115 (BetMGM)

The struggle for Real Madrid goal scorers at the moment is there simply aren't enough chances to go around for Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo all to make a mark in front of net. Picking a scorer each week is a tough sell, but in this case there's a clear front runner.

Vinicius had zero shots against Barcelona, as the other three combined for nine attempts on net. There is no way that will continue for multiple games, and the Brazilian will surely have his way against one of his favourite opponents.

In his last seven games against Celta Vigo, Vinicius has scored four goals, including one in each of his last two games against the club. He had four attempts on goal in the October victory, scoring the winner and out-shooting the other three main attackers combined.