Ravens vs. Steelers odds, prop bets, ATS predictions: Lamar Jackson favored to break Pittsburgh's spell in Week 11

A showdown between AFC North powerhouses takes place Sunday in Pittsburgh (1 p.m. ET, CBS), when the Steelers host the well-rested Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 11.

Pittsburgh (7-2) has won seven of its past eight matchups against Baltimore (7-3) -- five times as an underdog. The past five meetings have been defensive battles, with no team scoring more than 17 points.

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP but has a career mark of 1-3 when facing Pittsburgh, throwing seven interceptions. The Steelers, meanwhile, have thrived since Russell Wilson took over at QB, leading the team to three spread-beating victories in which they averaged 30.3 points.

Schedule-wise, Baltimore has a rest/preparation advantage after a pseudo bye following its 35-34 home victory over Cincinnati last Thursday. 

Ravens vs. Steelers odds: Spread, total, moneyline for NFL Week 11 clash

Baltimore opened as a 3-point favorite last Sunday night in Las Vegas, with the line ticking up to -3.5 on some NFL betting sites in early wagering. Here are live odds on this AFC North showdown:

Pittsburgh is 7-2 against the spread this season. Baltimore is 5-4-1 ATS. On the O/U chart, the Ravens lead the league in scoring and are an NFL-best 9-1(!) to the OVER. The Steelers are 5-4 O/U.

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Ravens vs. Steelers trends to know

1. The two biggest upsets of the season occurred when the losing team was coming off a Thursday game. One of those outings involved the Ravens.

After a season-opening loss to the Chiefs on a Thursday night, Baltimore was a 9-point home choice over Las Vegas in Week 2 and was defeated, 26-23. Two weeks later, the well-rested N.Y. Jets, also a 9-point home favorite, fell to Denver 10-9 the week following a Thursday night win over New England.

Over the past two seasons, such rested teams are 30-21-1 ATS when not facing a foe also off a Thursday game.

2. Twenty-one times this season, a team rallied from a deficit of 10-plus points to win. Baltimore has done it a league-high three times, all over the past six weeks, including coming back from a 21-7 hole against Cincinnati last Thursday.

Three days later, Pittsburgh beat host Washington 28-27 after trailing 24-14.

3. Jackson has had two perfect games this season with a 158.3 passer rating. He's had five games with a reading of 135-plus. There have been only 14 other times this season a QB has had that high a number.

Three things to know: Ravens' ground game gets stronger

1. Baltimore RB Derrick Henry, the NFL's rushing leader, is averaging a career-best 6.1 yards a carry. Also, Jackson has 538 yards, tops among QBs.

The Ravens have back RB Keaton Mitchell, who suffered a torn ACL in 2023. He averaged 8.4 yards on 47 carries last year.

2. Baltimore's pass defense has cratered, allowing a league-high 47 completions of 20-plus yards. That's one more than it yielded all last season.

3. Will Steelers LB T.J. Watt have another strong game against the Ravens and Jackson? Since 2019, he has had at least one QB trap in each of his 10 games against Baltimore, totaling 16. In the three Steelers victories when Jackson started, Watt had 6.5 sacks and 13 QB hits.

One thing that could slow him is the extra attention he'll surely receive now that fellow star LB Alex Highsmith is out (ankle).

Ravens vs. Steelers prop bets and anytime TD scorer odds

For bettors seeking additional action besides who wins and by what score, options are aplenty. Here are some prop bet offerings from top sports betting apps, including DraftKings, BetMGM and FanDuel. Caesars and Bet365 also have lots of prop options.

Anytime TD scorer (DraftKings)

• Ravens RB Derrick Henry: -205
• Steelers RB Najee Harris: +120
• Steelers RB Jaylen Warren: +145
• Ravens TE Mark Andrews: +130

Will there be a safety (DraftKings)

• Yes: +1300
• No: -3000

First scoring play (FanDuel)

• Touchdown: -240
• Field goal: +170
• Safety: +5000

Player to score 3-plus TDs (FanDuel)

• Steelers WR George Pickens: +9000
• Ravens WR Zay Flowers: +10000

Exact final score (BetMGM)

• Steelers 17, Ravens 10: +1700 (Pittsburgh beat Baltimore 17-10 twice last season)

Ravens vs. Steelers betting prediction: Baltimore to cover

Baltimore's ground game is averaging 182.6 yards a game, the best for any team since 2020. That's before Mitchell, last year's breakaway sensation, gets added back into the mix.

As for that weak pass defense, Baltimore should benefit going against a quarterback in Wilson who's lucky he doesn't have more than one interception, considering all the up-for-grab throws he makes. Also, Pittsburgh's leading rusher, Najee Harris, is questionable (ankle). He'll play, but maybe not at full throttle.

Prediction: Ravens -3; Under 48.5 points