Poll predicts possible political earthquake

The results of The California Post poll are in — and they predict a possible political earthquake in the June 2 primary.

In the race for LA mayor, fire victims’ advocate Spencer Pratt is leading incumbent Karen Bass, 30.1% to 29.5%.

That’s within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error. And Bass is winning among those who have already voted.

But among likely voters who have yet to cast a ballot, Pratt leads by 5%.

(Socialist Nithya Raman is third overall, at 23.4% — well off the lead.)

Moreover, 62% of respondents say LA is on the wrong track. Only 25% say it is on the right track.

Angelenos are hungry for change. And they might just give Pratt a chance.

Pratt has the support of 87% of Republicans in the polls. But he also has the support of a majority of independents, where he leads Bass by 34 points, 52% to 18%. (Raman has 15%.)

Pratt also leads among Latinos, with 33% against Bass’s 24% and Raman’s 21%. He also has a plurality of Asians and white voters. (Bass has two-thirds of the black vote.)

Democrats are split among Bass (40%) and Raman (32%). They will come back together in the fall.

But the fact that Bass cannot win a majority within her own party suggests she is a weak incumbent.

If Pratt makes the general election against Bass, and reaches out to Democrats — especially Raman supporters — he could build a winning coalition.

In the governor’s race, The California Post poll also showed that Xavier Becerra may no longer be the frontrunner.

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Republican Steve Hilton is tied for the lead with Democrat billionaire Tom Steyer, at 24.7%.

Becerra is third, at 18.7%, suggesting that voters may be having second thoughts. 

The race is still in flux, with just a few days to go before Election Day.

But one thing is clear: Californians are frustrated with the status quo.

Only 29% say the state is on the right track, while 56% say it is on the wrong track.

And incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom is underwater, albeit within the margin of error: 50% disapprove of the job he is doing, while only 49% approve.

(Not good for a presidential run.)

The number one issue for voters: The cost of living, at 23%. Affordable housing came in second, at 10%.

Those are the topics candidates must address — no matter who makes it through after Tuesday.

Joel Pollak is the Opinion editor of The California Post.